Braves: 3 trade deadline targets to avoid
By Sam Peebles
Braves trade targets to avoid: Madison Bumgarner
While it does make sense for the Atlanta Braves to add another rotation arm, even with Soroka coming back, Madison Bumgarner has some red flags attached.
Yes, it could be fun to see Bumgarner — a postseason legend — join your favorite team if you are a Braves fan. He also played high school baseball in North Carolina, which could be considered part of Braves Country.
Bumgarner has had an excellent career. It is hard to believe he is only 32. He currently owns a career WAR of 39.5, 115 ERA+ (15% better than league average), and a 1.123 WHIP.
As far as accolades go, he has also done well. He has received Cy Young votes in 5 seasons, MVP votes in one, is a 4-time All-Star, 1-time NLCS MVP, 1-time World Series MVP, and has three World Series rings.
Why not trade for a legend?
If we look at just Bumgarner’s ERA of 3.35 this season, he looks like an intriguing option. However, there are many variables at play. First, his peripherals are showing that he is due for some serious regression:
- Average Exit Velocity – Bottom 29 percent of the league
- Hard Hit Percentage – Bottom 18 percent
- xwOBA Against – Bottom 35 percent
- Expected ERA (xERA) – Bottom 35 percent
- Expected Batting Average Against – Bottom 47 percent
- Expected Slugging % Against – Bottom 22 percent
- Strikeout Rate – Bottom 13 percent
Needless to say, these are not the type of numbers you want to see in a trade candidate.
This is not the first year Bumgarner’s numbers have looked like this either. Since the start of 2020, he has had a xERA of 7.83, 4.32, and 4.30 respectively.
Beyond just the statistics, there is a contract to consider. Bumgarner is signed through 2024 to a contract of 5 years/$85M. This is not the type of contract that the Atlanta Braves would want to absorb, considering they have the highest payroll they have ever had, even accounting for inflation.