2022 Fantasy Football draft value: Sleepers, busts and more

Tight Ends

Best Value: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

ADP 78.7, TE 7

In the 12 games T.J. Hockenson played in 2021, he averaged 12.1 points per game. Stretched over a full season, that would have equated to TE7, just where he is being drafted today. Those top six also included Rob Gronkowski (Retired), and Darren Waller (now challenged for targets by Davante Adams). Because of this, Hockenson has a clear path to top-five TE potential.

Prior to his hand surgery (that knocked him out from week 13 on), Hockenson was on a hot streak, catching at least six passes or a touchdown in six of his previous seven games. There is no reason to think that the rapport with quarterback Jared Goff won’t continue, at the very least early in the season, while remaining a safety net for Goff on third downs.

We’ve seen a dramatic increase in the value of top tight ends in the past few years, with there being far few good starting options, as well as a separation between the elite and the mid-range starters. When you can fill the position with someone as consistent as Hockenson, be ready to pounce at this valuation.

Worst Value: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

ADP 96.3, TE 9

How can he be a worse value just 18 picks after my choice for best value at the same position, you ask? Because the two are trending in very different directions. While Hockenson – at twenty-five years old – is an unquestioned focal point of his team,

Ertz, 31, was traded to the Cardinals last season, who will likely boast one of the best WR rooms in the league upon return of suspended WR DeAndre Hopkins. Not only that, but the Cardinals drafted a young Tight End who may well prove to be an NFL starter in Trey McBride of Colorado State, who could be challenging Ertz for targets sooner rather than later.

Ertz put up 10.6 points per game last season, good for 10th in the league among TEs. In order to justify a top-nine draft position, he’d have to improve on his numbers from last season, which hardly seems like a probability. I’d say to avoid Ertz at the current price point, or as your TE1 at all.

Like him in this spot: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

ADP 167.0, TE 20

Is a player ranked 20th at his position even worth mentioning? I think so. While you’re not drafting Tonyan as a starter, I like the value you can get very late in even deeper drafts, as he is only two years removed from a top-three finish in total points among TEs.

Yes, his touchdown production was at a level which not easily repeated, though the Packers are down big pieces in Davante Adams, who was responsible for over 11 TDs per year over the past six years, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, who caught more than three per year in the last four years, meaning over fourteen TDs will be up for grabs in this offense. Aaron Rodgers tends to provide targets to receivers he trusts, and Tonyan proved in 2020 that he fits that bill, when healthy.

So, why is he going so late? As I said, you’re not drafting him as a starter, in part because he missed twelve games to an ACL injury in 2021. However, Tonyan could prove very useful as a bye-week or injury fill-in in a pinch. Who knows, maybe some brave soul will even punt on TEs nearly completely in a deep league, and opt to draft Tonyan as a high-risk starter.