AL MVP Deep Dive: Who has the edge, Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge?

As the dog days of August take their toll on other contenders, the AL MVP race comes down to Yankees superstar Aaron Judge and Angels two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani.

For awhile it appeared that the Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez would give Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani a run for their money in the AL MVP race, but August happened and Alvarez has slumped to a slash of .230/.315/.311 with a single home run and 9 RBI in 61 at bats during this month.

Judge has slowed a bit, too, but he’s still slashing .281/.446/.578 with 5 homers and 12 RBI in August, which brings his season totals to .295/.393/.658 with 47 home runs and 103 RBI through the Yankees first 123 games.

Down the stretch Judge’s closest competition is coming from two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, a favorite of many in baseball media, especially those enamored with the double duty aspect the likes of which hasn’t been seen since Babe Ruth led the American League with 11 home runs while also winning 13 games as a pitcher for the 1918 Boston Red Sox.

Ohtani’s been good for sure and he’s hot in August,  batting .313 with five home runs and 10 RBI for the first 22 days of the month, giving him 27 home runs, 72 RBI and a slash of .264/.357/.515 on the season.

Adding to the intrigue is Ohtani’s 10 wins as a pitcher, 143 ERA+, 12.4 strikeouts per 9 innings, 33.9% strikeout rate (top 4% in league) and 3.7 WAR as a pitcher, which when added to his 2.6 WAR as a batter, put him at 6.3 overall.

Judge, meanwhile not only pulverizes baseballs, but he plays the field well enough to register an outs above average in the eighty-third percentile, while splitting time between center field and right in his 96 outfield starts.

Ohtani’s double duty is extremely rare and he’s must-see TV, whether pitching or batting, but, through no fault of his own, he’s playing for a team that’s been out of contention since mid-May.

Judge on the other hand has the weight of New York squarely on his shoulders and was the key cog in the Yankees blistering start, as they had some wondering about the Mariners 116 AL regular season win record for a hot minute.

The Yankees are scuffling and finding runs difficult to come by, but Judge has done his part and New York still leads what was thought to be a competitive AL East by 8 games.

AL MVP race: Aaron Judge has slight edge over Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani’s unique gifts and contributions to the game, along with his attraction of fans and international stardom, shouldn’t be ignored.  Rather, they should be celebrated and are important to the game staying vibrant, gaining younger fans and expanding international reach.

However, those gifts and Ohtani’s performance this season shouldn’t be confused with being those of the American League’s Most Valuable Player, either, as that is an award that will belong to Judge. One look at the American League statistical leaderboard makes that crystal clear.

Judge leads the American League in WAR (7.2), home runs (47), total bases (292), RBI (103), Win Probability Added (4.6), slugging (.658), bases on balls (tied, 69), OPS+ (196), OPS (1.050), extra base hits (67), times on base (205), plus a host of other lesser cited stats.

No one can predict tomorrow, much less the next month of baseball, but at his current pace Judge projects to 62 home runs, 136 RBI and a 9.5 WAR.

Ohtani is a uniquely gifted baseball player, but Judge is not only the leader of the first-place New York Yankees, but the 2022 AL MVP. The stats don’t lie.