NFL playoffs: 12 biggest QB upsets of all time
The NFL playoffs are filled with Hall of Fame quarterbacks winning games and glory. But what about those rare times when the tables turned?
Nobody believes in Skylar Thompson or Tyler Huntley. Who would?
After all, Thompson has one career win. He’s a seventh-round rookie, and in that aforementioned win, his Miami Dolphins failed to score a touchdown.
Then there’s Huntley. Huntley is a third-year veteran for the Baltimore Ravens with eight NFL starts to his credit. To this juncture, he’s a backup without any 300-yard passing games. This year, he hasn’t thrown for even 200 yards in any contest.
Oh, and for Thompson and Huntley? They face the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals this weekend, who are trotting out Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, respectively. Both were named to the Pro Bowl this year, with Allen having been a Second-Team All-Pro in 2020, and Burrow reaching the Super Bowl last season.
In short, the resumès of the combination of Burrow and Allen against those of Thompson and Huntley couldn’t be more opposite.
And yet, the old clichè abides. That’s why they play the games.
In NFL postseason history, the better quarterback usually wins. This is especially true in the modern age of passing being the dominant way to move the ball.
But there are exceptions. In fact, there are some stunning ones. And we ranked them out. While Baltimore and Miami are deservedly heavy underdogs this weekend, history tells you there’s always a chance something impossible is around the corner.
Before we begin the countdown, we need a few ground rules:
- The losing quarterback must be either in the Hall of Fame, a clear future Hall of Fame, or active.
- The winning quarterback must have been on the underdog (by point spread)
With that said, let’s look at the 12 biggest quarterback upsets in NFL playoff history.
Honorable mention – Peyton Manning flops
2000 – Jay Fiedler vs. Peyton Manning (-1.5)
2010 – Mark Sanchez vs. Peyton Manning (-2)
Manning lost postseason games to Jay Fiedler and Mark Sanchez. He likely wakes up screaming once a week due to that fact. However, those 2000 and ’10 Indianapolis Colts teams weren’t exceptional.
The Dolphins won the AFC East in ’00 — which the Colts were a part of — and then won the Wild Card game in overtime. Ten years later, the Jets traveled to Lucas Oil Stadium with a better record and a better team, thus the meager line.
Absurd losses in terms of quarterback comparisons, but neither was stunning in the moment.
Pick Analysis. Saints 31, Rams 28. Aaron Brooks. player. Scouting Report. 2000. 12. 15
Losing QB: Kurt Warner
Venue: Louisiana Superdome
Betting line: Rams -5.5
What happened: This was the third meeting between the two teams in 2000, with both in the NFC West. New Orleans was a significant home underdog but pulled ahead 31-7 in the fourth quarter, before holding off a furious Rams rally.
On that day, St. Louis turned the ball over five times and took nine penalties. The mistakes were enough for the Saints to capitalize, with the contest effectively ended by the Rams muffing a punt inside of the final two minutes.
Steelers 24, Broncos 17. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. 1984. Mark Malone. 11. player. 55
Losing QB: John Elway
Venue: Mile High Stadium
Betting line: Broncos -4.5
What happened: Before Malone was reporting from Sunday Night Football for ESPN, he was springing upsets on John Elway. In the ’84 Divisional round, Pittsburgh took down Denver at Mile High with Malone throwing for 224 yards and a touchdown. Conversely, Elway struggled, completing 19-of-37 for 184 yards.
Denver’s main problem was not stopping Pittsburgh’s ground game, which racked up 169 yards and two scores. The Steelers shortened the game and walked away victorious.
10. player. Scouting Report. 1994. Bears 35, Vikings 18. Pick Analysis. Steve Walsh. 57
Losing QB: Warren Moon
Venue: Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Betting line: Vikings -6
What happened: Walsh had a pedestrian game, throwing for 221 yards and two scores. However, Minnesota turned the ball over four times and Moon tossed two interceptions, leading to a Chicago route. Additionally, the Bears scored a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter to seal the game.
However, Minnesota lost this game more than Chicago won it. The Bears only managed 308 yards of offense, but the Vikings took 11 penalties and had the aforementioned quartet of turnovers.
Giants 15, 49ers 13. 9. player. 31. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. Jeff Hostetler. 1990
Losing QB: Joe Montana
Venue: Candlestick Park
Betting line: 49ers -8
What happened: Hostetler played a clean game against the 49ers, who were aiming for the three-peat. The Giants had zero turnovers, and while they didn’t score any touchdowns, they moved into range for five field goals.
But this was a story of the New York defense, which held Joe Montana to 190 passing yards before knocking him out in the fourth quarter. San Francisco’s all-world offense managed just 240 total yards.
Blake Bortles. 2017. Jaguars 45, Steelers 42. 8. player. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. 52
Losing QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Venue: Heinz Field
Betting line: Steelers -5.5
What happened: Pittsburgh checked al the boxes for an upset. The Steelers were -2 in turnover differential and allowed a defensive score. The Jaguars also ran the ball for 164 yards and didn’t allow a sack, rolling up a shocking 45 points on the road.
Ben Roethlisberger had a huge statistical day, going for 469 passing yards and five touchdowns. However, much of those numbers came after Pittsburgh put itself in a 28-7 hole in the second quarter.
1979. player. 51. Pick Analysis. Rams 21, Cowboys 19. Vince Ferragamo. 7. Scouting Report
Losing QB: Roger Staubach
Venue: Texas Stadium
Betting line: Cowboys -8.5
What happened: Ferragamo took over at midseason for injured starter Pat Haden and led the 9-7 Rams into Texas Stadium in the Divisional round. There, Los Angeles stunned the nation by ending Roger Staubach’s career, notably on a 50-yard Ferragamo touchdown pass in the final minutes.
Ferragamo was only 9-of-21 but went for 210 yards with three scores and two interceptions. Although the Rams lost the turnover battle (2-1), they held Staubach to 128 yards on 28 attempts in the legend’s final game.
Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. 1985. player. Patriots 31, Dolphins 14. Tony Eason. 6. 47
Losing QB: Dan Marino
Venue: Orange Bowl
Betting line: Dolphins -5.5
What happened: Six turnovers. The Dolphins hadn’t lost to the Patriots in 20 seasons at the Orange Bowl but fell apart in the AFC Championship Game. Dan Marino threw two interceptions and fumbled once, ending his hopes of going to consecutive Super Bowls.
As for Eason, he did very little damage through the air. The former first-round pick threw for 71 yards but did toss three touchdowns in the blowout victory.
Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. Mark Sanchez. player. 30. 2010. Jets 28, Patriots 21. 5
Losing QB: Tom Brady
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Betting line: Patriots -9.5
What happened: Sanchez was a flop in Gotham, but for two years, he was a box office hit come the playoffs. After beating Peyton Manning and the Colts a week earlier, Sanchez took his Jets to Foxboro and handled the 14-2 Patriots.
Sanchez threw for 194 yards and three touchdowns, while New England was undone by a turnover and an early-game fake punt in its own territory.
Scouting Report. Tim Tebow. player. 45. Pick Analysis. 2011. Broncos 29, Steelers 23 (OT). 4
Losing QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Betting line: Steelers -7.5
What happened: Nobody in Denver will ever forget it. The Broncos won the AFC West at 8-8 despite Tebow completing a ghastly 46.5 percent of his regular-season attempts.
Against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round, the Steelers allowed Tebow to throw for 316 yards and two touchdowns, including the overtime game-winner on an 80-yard slant to Demaryius Thomas. Denver’s defense played a major role as well, sacking Roethlisberger five times and intercepting him once.
54. Pick Analysis. 2017. Nick Foles. 3. player. Scouting Report. Eagles 41, Patriots 33
Losing QB: Tom Brady
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Betting line: Patriots -4.5
What happened: This is the rare example of a lesser quarterback beating an all-time great, largely because of his own exploits. While Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and three scores, Nick Foles accounted for 373 yards and three touchdowns of his own.
New England racked up 613 yards but couldn’t stop the Eagles, largely due to corner Malcolm Butler being benched for mysterious reasons pre-game. Philadelphia never punted, scored on a key fourth down using Philly Special, and pulled the upset.
Pick Analysis. Wade Wilson. 2. player. 60. Scouting Report. 1987. Vikings 36, 49ers 24
Losing QB: Joe Montana
Venue: Candlestick Park
Betting line: 49ers -11
What happened: The Niners entered the Divisional round as 13-2 in the strike-shortened ’87 season, ranking first offensively and third on defense. However, it fell apart against Minnesota due to a pick-six, a precursor to Joe Montana being benched.
Also, the rainy afternoon will forever be remembered for Vikings receiver Anthony Carter, a former United States Football League star who caught 10 passes for 227 yards.
Scouting Report. 1979. Oilers 17, Chargers 14. Gifford Nielsen. 1. Pick Analysis. player. 35
Losing QB: Dan Fouts
Venue: San Diego Stadium
Betting line: Chargers -8
What happened: Dan Fouts threw five interceptions, four of which went to former Canadian football League safety Vernon Perry. The Chargers gained 380 total yards and only allowed Nielsen to throw for 111 yards on 19 attempts, but turnovers cost top-seeded San Diego a massive upset.
Most incredibly, Nielsen was 3-11 in his regular-season career, throwing for 20 touchdowns against 22 interceptions. Houston was also without the NFL’s leading rusher in Earl Campbell, and star receiver Ken Burrough.