Farmers Insurance Open 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Torrey Pines will host this week’s Farmers Insurance Open and we have our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the week of golf with an early start.

We’re sticking in California this week after last week’s The American Express and now we head to a more famous track with Torrey Pines hosting the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. And now the question becomes if anyone can stop Jon Rahm, a past winner here and the US Open champions here as well who is coming off two wins in two starts for 2023.

Rahm was a big cash for us last week in our PGA Tour expert picks as we had him again for a Top 5 finish at plus odds and we also won a plus-money matchup with Tom Kim over Will Zalatoris. Brian Harman missed the cut instead of finishing Top 10, Patrick Cantlay played well but didn’t win, and Emiliano Grillo was a bad read on my part. We were slightly up after all of that (+0.26U) but still down a little over a unit this week.

Now let’s move forward and keep cashing as we dive into our PGA Tour expert picks for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through AmEx: 5-8-1, -1.014 units (0-3 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $333,387.22 (Brian Harman taken at Sony, $0)

PGA Tour expert picks for Farmers Insurance Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for Farmers Insurance Open: Max Homa (+260)

It was actually quite surprising to see Max Homa miss the cut at the Farmers last year after he had two straight Top 20 finishes in the previous two years. But after a break since finishing T3 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the California kid is back in his home state and he has the game to make some noise this week. Especially with the improved short game for Homa, I think he comes in comfortably inside the Top 10.

Pick to Win Farmers Insurance Open (0.5 units): Xander Schauffele (+1100) 

Xander Schauffele used to be a conundrum at this course as it’s his hometown track and a venue that should suit his all-around game. However, he consistently missed cuts. He’s broken through recently, though, with three Top 35 finishes in his last three starts, including finishing as a runner-up in 2021. After finishing T3 at the AmEx last week, though, I think it’s time that the San Diego/La Jolla kid gets it done and hoists the trophy at Torrey Pines.

One and Done Pick for Farmers Insurance Open: Jason Day

I tend to shy away from Jason Day due to his injury concerns and, frankly, inconsistent form. I’m less worried about that when it comes to Torrey Pines where he has three Top 5 finishes in his last five starts and an additional Top 20 in that stretch as well. Again, trying to be more conservative early in 2023 with the One and Done, I’m going with Day this week to cash out nicely.

Farmers Insurance Open picks and best bets

Taylor Montgomery to finish Top 20 (+115)

Maybe this is too easy and a trap, but Montgomery has finished in the Top 15 in four of his last five starts and was T11 at Torrey Pines last year. His driving ability plays well at this course and he has a strong short game to back that up, gaining strokes around the green and with the putter (0.8 per round) over the last 20 rounds. That’s enough for me to think he registers another Top 20.

Jon Rahm to finish Top 5 (+105)

I’ve bet Jon Rahm to finish in the Top 5 twice in 2023. He’s won both of those tournaments. I still don’t see the value in him to win outright at +450 but getting plus odds still with the insurance that he doesn’t have to win is too good to not be running it back once again. He’s playing like the best player in the world right now and Rahm is now at a place where he won the US Open and has always loved. That’s too good to pass up again.

Taylor Pendrith to finish Top 40 (+115)

We’ve seen the approach play from Taylor Pendrith really slip lately as he’s losing strokes over his last 20 rounds. Having said that, at a course where his terrific length off the tee should play well, I think we see that improve and his putting should follow. Pendrith finished T16 here last year, so getting plus odds for only a Top 40 seems like a good run for the Canadian.

Longshot pick to win Farmers Insurance Open: Jhonattan Vegas (+11000)

Jhonny Vegas is always a bit of a longshot because of his lack of consistency, on the greens in particular. However, his length off the tee and solid approach play should put him in good spots at Torrey Pines. Whether he can capitalize from there is why he’s the dark horse here.

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