3 Cardinals players who’ll be better in 2023, and 2 who won’t

Oct 8, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Lars Nootbaar (21) slides safely into second base for a double during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the Wild Card series for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

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Jul 22, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson (3) reacts after striking out against the Cincinnati Reds in the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports /

Why Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson will not have a better year in 2023

Dylan Carlson had a really strong rookie season finishing third in the NL Rookie of The Year balloting after hitting 18 home runs with a .780 OPS and a 115 OPS+. He looked like a core piece of the Cardinals’ current and future roster. Unfortunately, a very disappointing 2022 season has his future up in the air.

Carlson slashed .236/.316/.380 with eight home runs and 42 RBI in 128 games played. While Carlson’s BAbip was a below-average .281, there’s reason to believe it won’t be much better than that in 2023.

The switch-hitting outfielder ranked in the 7th percentile in average exit velocity and the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate according to baseball savant. Hitting the ball hard doesn’t mean a player will automatically have success, but it certainly is better to hit the baseball hard than not.

Carlson does do a nice job drawing walks and not chasing but his lack of solid contact makes it hard to expect anything more than the .695 OPS he had this past season.

Can the 24-year-old prove me wrong? Absolutely. I’ll have to see it to believe it though.

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