Kentucky vs. Arkansas prediction and odds for Saturday, March 4 (Back Razorbacks at home)

Arkansas and Kentucky are two teams heading to the NCAA Tournament, but each are coming off of losses of varying degrees earlier this week and would like to finish the regular season off with a win.

Kentucky dropped a home game to likely NIT candidate Vanderbilt in the final seconds, a disheartening loss for a Wildcats team that entered that game on a four-game winning streak.

They finish the regular season on the road against Arkansas, who lost its past two games, albeit on the road against the likes of Alabama and Tennessee as considerable underdogs.

Arkansas has been playing great ball in spite of some of the losing results since the return of freshman guard Nick Smith Jr, can it get back in the W column on Saturday afternoon?

Let’s check out the odds:

Kentucky vs. Arkansas odds, spread and total

Kentucky vs. Arkansas prediction and pick

Arkansas had little issue winning at Rupp Arena about a month ago, defeating Kentucky 88-73, and that was without Smith, who is the engine to the team. He has missed more than half of the season, but when he is on the floor, Arkansas is operating at an elite level. The Razorbacks go from a top 40 offense to a top 10 offense when plays this year, according to Hoop-Explorer. 

Further, this is a brutal matchup for Kentucky’s defense, who struggles to defend the rim at all. The Wildcats are 254th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, evident in the first meeting when the Hogs shot 66% on two’s and Smith wasn’t active.

Arkansas struggles to shoot from the perimeter, but Kentucky runs teams off the 3-point line, and the Hogs prefer to dominate inside, where they have the second best near rim field goal percentage in the country.

Arkansas is a team I’m buying heading into the postseason, it led Alabama at the half last Saturday on the road, and I think it is in line for a convincing home win.

PICK: Arkansas -5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.