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Massachusetts vs. Richmond prediction and odds for Atlantic 10 tournament first round

By Reed Wallach

Nov 22, 2022; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Richmond Spiders guard Jason Nelson (1) goes in for a layup in the second half against the Temple Owls at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 22, 2022; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Richmond Spiders guard Jason Nelson (1) goes in for a layup in the second half against the Temple Owls at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Atlantic 10 tournament gets underway on Tuesday afternoon with Massachusetts and Richmond set to face off in the first round.

It’s been a long season for each team, but especially Richmond, who has struggled all season long to a 14-17 record, but also now won’t have head coach Chris Mooney after he underwent successful heart surgery. The team is being led by Peter Thomas on an interim basis.

The Spiders will meet first year head coach Frank Martin and his Minutemen on Tuesday afternoon in hopes of extending their season.

This game is lined as a coin flip, so who will advance?

Here are the odds:

Massachusetts vs. Richmond odds, spread and total

Massachusetts vs. Richmond prediction and pick

The Minutemen won the lone meeting between these two this season, 85-76 at home, and I believe they have matchup advantages to make it a second consecutive win.

The Spiders are over reliant on the 3-point shot, the second highest 3-point rate in the A-10, but they have been the second worst perimeter shooting offense in the conference. UMass’ has a compact defense that is great in gaps and can cause turnovers that force teams to shoot it from deep, the Minutemen are allowing the second highest 3-point rate in the country.

If Richmond is going to hoist it from 3 and fail, it can put it behind early in this one against a physical Massachusetts offense.

On the other end, I like UMass’ prospects of generating second chances, the best offensive rebounding team in the A10, and outpace the Spiders defense that is bottom 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage allowed since February 1, per Bart Torvik. 

This game is being lined like a coin flip, but Richmond is too reliant on its perimeter shooting which has been its Achilles heel all season. UMass generates their points on the inside and Richmond’s defense has been a layup line inside, allowing the 18th highest two-point percentage over the last month.

I’ll side with the Minutemen to advance.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.