March Madness 2023 upset picks: Predicting every First Round upset

March Madness Upsets – West Region

No. 11 Arizona State over No. 6 TCU

The Big 12 was an absolute juggernaut that really wore down its teams this season. A deserving eight of them made the field but the rigors of never being able to take a night off may lead to some early exits, like the one we are projecting TCU to experience here.

Arizona State has been trending in the right direction for weeks now and plays elite defense, ranking 28th in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Horned Frogs haven’t been quite as strong since guard Mike Miles suffered a hyperextended knee that cost him time, slumping down the stretch with eight losses in their last 13 games.

No. 10 Boise State over No. 7 Northwestern

Fading Big Ten teams, particularly ones in the 7-seed range, has generally been a winning strategy in recent years for your bracket. Northwestern is riding high after making just its second NCAA Tournament appearance ever but the Wildcats haven’t been playing well of late, losing four of their final five games, including a pair to Penn State.

Boise State has been a quietly strong team in the Mountain West all season and is one of the country’s stingiest defensive teams, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Broncos should be able to throw enough different looks at Boo Buie to slow him down and knock the Wildcats out after just one game.