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Penn State vs. Texas A&M prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Josh Yourish

Penn State Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett (22) drives to the basket during the Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament semifinal game against the Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday, March 11, 2023, at United Center in Chicago.Iupsu031123 Am19078
Penn State Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett (22) drives to the basket during the Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament semifinal game against the Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday, March 11, 2023, at United Center in Chicago.Iupsu031123 Am19078 /
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There might not be a single team in the NCAA Tournament that is more upset with their seeding than the Texas A&M Aggies, and rightfully so. The Aggies were second in the SEC in the regular season with a 25-9 record overall and made it to the conference tournament final before losing to the committee’s overall No. 1 seed, Alabama.

Yet, Buzz Williams’ team is the No. 7 seed in the Midwest and stuck facing a red hot Penn State Nittany Lions team that nearly knocked off Purdue in the Big 10 Championship game.

Let’s check out the odds for Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 PM ET on Thursday night in Des Moines Iowa.

Penn State vs. Texas A&M odds, spread and total

Penn State vs. Texas A&M prediction and pick

When you’re facing Penn State you better be ready for a barrage from deep. The Nittany Lions can really fill it up with Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk firing from behind the arc. As a team they shoot 38.9% from three (27th in the country) on 27.0 attempts per game.

All of that shooting is centered around Jalen Pickett, who averages 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists all to lead the team. They just rolled through the Big 10 Tournament as a No. 10 seed all the way to the final and lost by two to Purdue while only shooting 30% from deep.

Texas A&M is a good defensive team, so they should be able to slow down Penn State, but nobody can really stop the Nittany Lions offense right now. They’ll need to outscore Penn State in this one. That responsibility falls on Wade Taylor IV’s shoulders. He averaged 16.5 points and 4.0 assists this year, but I’ll favor Pickett in that matchup.

Penn State is most vulnerable inside on defense, we saw that when Zach Edey just dismantled them, but Texas A&M doesn’t have a post threat to dominate the game. This feels like Micah Shrewsberry’s year and despite thinking A&M should be a much higher seed, I think they’ll lose to the Nittany Lions in the first round.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change