Astros: Pressure on Framber Valdez as rotation suffers second blow

As Astros rotation injuries mount the pressure on Framber Valdez increases.

Once it became clear that Justin Verlander was not going to re-sign with the Houston Astros last offseason, the hopes and dreams of Astros fans turned to someone they deemed their new ace: Framber Valdez.

Valdez was the obvious choice to lead the rotation finishing 2022 with a 17-6 record, 2.82 ERA and 3 complete games in 31 starts.

His ground ball rate (66.1% for his career) is legendary and from April 25th to July 18th of last season Valdez registered 25 consecutive quality starts.

Over his first 5 seasons in Houston, Valdez had racked up a 41-23 record and 3.38 ERA and had worked his way toward the front of the Astros rotation, just behind the future Hall of Famer Verlander.

There was just one problem. Walks. Over those first five seasons, Valdez walked 3.7 batters per nine innings causing his WHIP to soar to 1.252 an unusually high number for such a good pitcher.

Many of those ground balls turned into double plays and Valdez survived and even thrived, but there was a feeling if he was to take the next step and be the true ace something needed to change.

The improvement actually began last season, when Valdez lowered his walk rate to 3.0 per nine innings.  Still not great, but the improvement was there, moving Valdez from the 25th percentile in MLB to the 46th percentile.

Six starts into 2023 and this year’s numbers are even better. Valdez has lowered his walk rate to 1.8 per nine innings which is half of his career average when the season started and is good enough for the 83rd percentile.

As a result, Valdez’s WHIP is down to 1.154 and his ERA sits at 2.54, despite giving up more hits per nine innings.

The Astros rotation has shown some signs of weakness this season and the loss of Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia in back to back games leaves the team grasping for answers 30 games into the 2023 season as they attempt to defend their World Championship.

Yet, Houston still has a formidable front three, when you consider Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

Valdez has pitched in some bad luck early in 2023 as he matched Dylan Cease pitch for pitch on opening day, throwing five shutout innings as the Astros shorthanded offense struggled, then suffered a loss as the Rangers scored 4 unearned runs in a start and another when Aaron Nola held Houston to one run.

Still, Valdez has registered a quality start the last five times out, reaching 7 innings in 4 of the last 5 outings, giving the Astros length at a time some other starters are struggling to make 5 innings.

While some scoff at the quality start metric, don’t be fooled around the rhetoric of “all you have to do is have a 4.50 ERA.”

While true, that’s the minimum.  You don’t consider all home runs cheap because some are hit 350 feet.

Houston Astros: Pressure is on Framber Valdez

The numbers for Valdez bare this out, too.  In his quality starts this season, he’s averaged 6.8 innings, 6.2 hits, 6.6 strikeouts, 1.6 walks and a 2.91 ERA.

While the Astros have only won 2 of 5 of Valdez’s quality starts, the team is 10-3 overall when a pitcher has a quality start with a 1.36 ERA.

The other, often overlooked, benefit of quality start is the positive impact it has on a bullpen.  By definition, you are going at least 6 innings and the Astros average this season is 6.62 innings per quality start.

Hence, less outs for your bullpen to get, less appearances and warm ups.

The loss of Garcia and Urquidy is no small matter as the two combined for 28 wins in 2022.

In their recent rise, the Astros have always found a way. Found someone  to step up when Cole and Verlander opted for different versions of the Big Apple, or Verlander had Tommy John.

They’ll have to do that again if they hope to repeat and it starts with Framber Valdez.