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Orioles vs. Braves prediction and odds for Friday, May 5 (Back Max Fried to continue his dominance)

By Josh Yourish

Apr 23, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) pitches against the Houston Astros during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 23, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) pitches against the Houston Astros during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Baltimore Orioles were one of the first teams in the MLB to reach 20 wins when they beat the Royals on May 2. The Atlanta Braves reached that same mark on the same day and hold the best record in the National League while the Orioles don’t even have the best record in their division.

Tonight is Game 1 of this three-game weekend set in Atlanta and it’ll feature Dean Kremer against Max Fried. Kremer is 2-1 with a 6.67 ERA in six starts for Baltimore. Fried on the other side has only made four starts, but he’s been stellar with a 0.45 ERA and 2-0 record.

Here are the odds for the Orioles and Braves in Game 1:

Orioles vs. Braves odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Braves prediction and pick

Atlanta is doing some serious damage with their lineup. They have Sean Murphy raking night in and night out from the catcher’s spot and now Ronald Acuna Jr. who leads the league in steals is hitting like the MVP candidate he’s expected to be every year. Ozzie Albies even has an OPS north of 1.000 in the past week and he has nine home runs on the year to lead the team. There really aren’t any weaknesses in this lineup and it’ll be a nightmare for Kremer to navigate.

Not only will it be tough for Baltimore’s starting pitcher, but it could be a rough night for their lineup too. Fried has allowed one earned run in 20.0 innings this season and has 18 strikeouts to four walks. Fried is 98th percentile in both expected ERA and average exit velocity, 97th percentile in expected slugging, 96th in barrel rate, and 94th in hard hit rate. That means that barely anybody can touch Max Fried, but if you do you’re not going to hit him hard.

For two 20 win teams going head-to-head the Braves are very big favorites, but with this pitching matchup it’s for good reason.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change