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Sparks vs. Mercury prediction and odds for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

By Peter Dewey

May 21, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) holds back Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner (42) after a foul call in the second half against the Chicago Sky at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
May 21, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) holds back Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner (42) after a foul call in the second half against the Chicago Sky at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2023 season has been a rough one to start for the Los Angeles Sparks, simply because of how their schedule was set up.

The Sparks played two of their first three games against the Las Vegas Aces, who are dominating the league with a 28.7 net rating in four games. Los Angeles gave the Aces their best game, losing by just nine at home, but the Sparks are still just 1-2 on the season.

The win? Well that came against the same team they’ll face on Friday, the Phoenix Mercury, in their season opener.

Los Angeles won that game 94-71, riding a balanced effort with five different players in double figures.

Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and the Mercury are just 1-2 to start this season, but they are favored at home in this matchup.

Here’s the latest odds and how to bet on this matchup on Friday night:

Sparks vs. Mercury odds, spread and total

Sparks vs. Mercury prediction and pick

Even though the Sparks dominated the Mercury in the first matchup between these teams, I’m not completely sold on taking a side in this game.

These teams rank eight (Los Angeles) and ninth (Phoenix) in net rating on the season.

However, I do expect this to be a high-scoring affair after 165 points were scored in the season opener despite Phoenix struggling.

This season, these teams rank fifth (Los Angeles) and seventh (Phoenix) in offensive rating, but the Sparks really struggled on defense against the Aces, putting them 10th in the league in defensive rating.

Los Angeles likes to push the pace (fourth in the WNBA) and it was able to do that, and score at a high rate, in the first meeting between these teams. Plus, the Sparks and Mercury and No. 2 and 3 in the league in 3-point percentage this season.

That strong shooting and an increased pace should give us a high-scoring game, and I expect Phoenix to compete a little more at home after being blown out on the road earlier this season.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.