Rays vs. Padres prediction and odds for Sunday, June 18 (Fade Tampa’s Offense)

Jun 17, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Juan Soto (22) draws a walk in the eighth inning against against the Tampa Bay Rays at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 17, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Juan Soto (22) draws a walk in the eighth inning against against the Tampa Bay Rays at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports /
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It’s not often that the Tampa Bay Rays are underdogs. In fact, they’ve been underdogs just nine times so far this season, but today they are underdogs to the San Diego Padres and Joe Musgrove. The Padres took a 2-0 win yesterday to even the series, so today is the rubber match.

The 51-23 Rays will send Yonny Chirinos to face the 34-36 Padres and Musgrove in San Diego. Chirinos is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA, but this will be just his third start and 10th total appearance of the season. Musgrove is making his 10th start of the year and enters with a 4-2 record and 4.37 ERA. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Rays vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Rays vs. Padres prediction and pick

The Tampa Bay Rays looked like they had the best lineup in baseball this season, so it’s a surprise to see that they’re ninth in runs scored this month, but it’s an even bigger surprise that they’re 18th in team OPS. With only 14 home runs this month they are 20th in the MLB after hitting 59 in April and 42 in May, they’re on pace for well under 30 in June.

The Rays pitching staff is holding up their end of the bargain with a team ERA of 2.76 this month which is second best in baseball. The Padres are actually third with a 3.01 and Musgrove has only allowed four totals runs in three starts this month. He’s pitched 17.0 innings in those three starts, allowing 14 hits and five walks to 16 strikeouts.

The Padres have to love what they’re getting from Musgrove and their entire staff. With the way Tampa is struggling at the plate he should have another strong start. The Padres are top 10 in both runs scored and OPS this month, so I’ll back them as a favorite. Tampa Bay is 4-5 so far as an underdog this year.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change