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Liberty vs. Mercury prediction and odds for Friday, Aug. 18 (Trust Phoenix at home)

By Peter Dewey

Aug 3, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) looks on against the Atlanta Dream during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 3, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) looks on against the Atlanta Dream during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New York Liberty will play the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night in the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday.

It’s a tough turnaround for the Liberty, since they played the league’s best team last night, but Phoenix has struggled in 2023, posting a 9-21 record through 30 games.

Diana Taurasi is going to have her hands full with several key players out for Phoenix.

Phoenix Mercury injury report

  • Brittney Griner (out)
  • Skylar Diggins-Smith (out)
  • Shey Peddy (out)
  • Megan Gustafson (out)

The Liberty are massive favorites in this game, and rightfully so, but can the team cover on the second night of a back-to-back?

Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this matchup:

Liberty vs. Mercury odds, spread and total

Liberty vs. Mercury prediction and pick

The Liberty are far and away the better team – especially with so many key players out for the Mercury – but I don’t know if I want to take them to cover the spread here.

This is the third game in four days for the Liberty, who won the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup on Tuesday night. The first two games came against the Aces, so the team has been battling the league’s best squad before this matchup.

There has to be a little fatigue setting in for Breanna Stewart and company, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Liberty win but fail to cover the 12-point spread.

Phoenix has been solid at home this season, going 8-7 against the spread compared to just 3-12 on the road.

The last time these teams faced off in New York, Phoenix lost by just four points, so it may be a little undervalued against a Liberty team that is just 7-9 ATS on the road this season.

Given the quick turnaround for the Liberty, I’ll take a chance on Phoenix to cover in this game.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here.