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Fever vs. Mercury prediction and odds for Sunday, Aug. 20 (Indiana struggles as favorite)

By Peter Dewey

Aug 5, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) dribbles against Seattle Storm guard Jewell Loyd (24) during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 5, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (3) dribbles against Seattle Storm guard Jewell Loyd (24) during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury are both in last place in their respective conferences heading into Sunday evening’s matchup.

The bright side for these franchises? Well, one of them is going to pick up a win while the other is going to further its chances of getting the No. 1 pick in next year’s WNBA draft.

The Mercury are without two of their best players in Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith (who has missed this entire season on maternity leave). Shey Peddy (concussion) will also miss this game for Phoenix.

Lexie Hull, who has started 25 games for the Fever this season, is also listed as out for this game.

Griner is by far the biggest loss on either side, as it leaves Diana Taurasi with a lot less help on the offensive end. Phoenix scored just 63 points in a home loss to the New York Liberty in its last game, but could it bounce back against a Fever team that has struggled as a favorite?

Here are the latest odds and my best bet for this WNBA contest:

Fever vs. Mercury odds, spread and total

Fever vs. Mercury prediction and pick

These teams have both been brutal this season, but there are a few key trends that favor the Mercury in this spot.

Phoenix is much better at home: The Mercury are a terrible 1-14 straight up and 3-12 against the spread on the road this season, but they’re a different team at home. Phoenix is 8-8 ATS and straight up at home, a good sign for its chances to cover as a 3.5-point underdog.

Indiana struggles as a favorite: The Fever have been solid against the spread on the road (9-7-1 ATS), but they are brutal as favorites in the 2023 season – going 1-6 ATS.

The Achilles heel for the Fever all season long has been the team’s defense (No. 12 in defensive rating). These teams both play at a slow pace, so Indiana is going to need stops to win and cover in this game.

Even though the Mercury are not a playoff team, I’m not sold on this team being as bad as its record suggests. Taurasi and Griner have missed time in 2023, and the Mercury turn the ball over a ton (16.7 times per game – the worst in the WNBA), but they have shot the ball well (third in effective field goal percentage).

Against a bad defense, I think the Mercury will be able to cover as home underdogs on Sunday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here.