Predicting Alexis Lafreniere’s next contract with the New York Rangers

The final notable order of business left for the New York Rangers this offseason is squaring away a new contract with winger Alexis Lafreniere.

Following the expiration of his three-year $11.325 million entry-level contract, RFA Alexis Lafreniere has yet to ink a new NHL contract with the New York Rangers. He’s hoping the deal gets done soon.

“It’s coming. My agent and the Rangers are in discussions,” Lafreniere said in mid-August while participating in a Pro-Am charity game. “I hope it will be settled in the next few weeks.”

The 21-year-old winger hasn’t had the production the Rangers are hoping for from the 2020 first-overall draft pick. Last season, Lafreniere tallied 39 points with 16 goals and 23 assists. He disappeared during the Stanley Cup Playoffs with zero points during the Round 1 series.

Lafreniere hasn’t shown great skating ability, and he needs to shoot the puck more. His shots on goal increased from 110 in 2021-22 to 135 in 2022-23, but he still needs to take more. Although Lafreniere hasn’t reached stardom yet, it doesn’t mean he won’t get there. He has the makings of an excellent playmaker.

Playing in the bottom six significantly impacts output. To truly measure where Lafreniere is at, he needs to see more ice time and top-six minutes. He needs more consistent time on the power play than he’s had so far. Lafreniere averaged 15:13 minutes of ice time last season. In each of the previous two seasons, he averaged under 14 minutes. He spent most of his time on the third line in 2022-23.

What will Alexis Lafreniere’s new contract look like?

Lafreniere is expected to receive a bridge deal, one that will allow him the opportunity to show what he can do over the next two or three seasons in pursuit of a long-term contract. He should see somewhere around $2.5 or $2.75 million AAV. His new contract could be around $5 or $5.5 million for two years.

What’s holding up the new contract? Lafreniere could be looking for a lengthier contract than the Rangers are willing to give at this point based on what they’ve gotten from him. It could also be that the Rangers aren’t offering as much money as Lafreniere is looking for.

The Rangers probably need to clear cap space to give Lafreniere his desired salary. According to CapFriendly, the Rangers have about $2.278 million of cap space left for 2023-24. The organization has to navigate the salary cap crunch while figuring out the right deal for Lafreniere.

What needs to happen for Lafreniere to prove himself? He should see more ice time and more power play minutes under new head coach Peter Laviolette. Earlier this summer, Laviolette told NHL.com that he would like to count on young players like Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko more.

“You certainly would like to see them take the next step, more minutes, maybe a little higher up in the lineup, maybe more power play time,” Laviolette said. “With that there has to be opportunity.”

Looking at these two young players, Lafreniere is in a similar position to where Kakko was last year. Kakko has also yet to generate the production the Rangers are hoping for from the 2019 second-overall pick. Kakko signed a two-year $4.2 million bridge deal last offseason.

Once he’s provided opportunities, fans will see if Lafreniere is ready to shine. Given his age, he still has time to grow into a star. If he is given an opportunity to see more playing time and doesn’t break out in 2023-24, another disappointing season could lead to the end of his time in New York. The Rangers could ultimately decide he’s better off as a trade chip. The 2023-24 season is critical for Lafreniere.