2024 NFC Playoff Projections Based on Odds (Who Will Contend for the Postseason?)
By Peter Dewey
With opening NFL playoff odds released last week, did you not expect me to use them to take a way too early look at next season's playoff picture?
I mean, it's too easy not to try!
Oddsmakers already have in their minds who they think will make the playoffs in the NFC, but as we see every year, there are dark horse teams that can change that landscape pretty quickly. Maybe that provides betting value on a team that you think will make a run, or oppositely, a team you think will fail miserably.
I've already broken down some playoff teams to fade, and some plus-money squads to bet at this point in the offseason.
If everything goes chalk this season, here's how Vegas sees it working out:
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Predicting the NFC Playoff Seeds Based on Odds
1. San Francisco 49ers (-475)
It's no surprise that the defending NFC champions are favored to finish with the No. 1 seed and have the best playoff odds in the conference.
San Francisco returns a lot of the roster that went to the Super Bowl last season, and the team is hoping young quarterback Brock Purdy will continue to develop into a star.
2. Atlanta Falcons (-300)
Woah.
The Kirk Cousins effect?
Atlanta has the second-best odds to make the playoffs in the NFC -- likely because the team plays in a weak division -- making it the No. 2 seed in these projections. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles, so there's a reason to be cautious, but the Falcons looked like a team that was a quarterback away last season.
3. Detroit Lions (-225)
I'm giving the Lions the nod here -- even though they have the same odds as Dallas -- since the team has better odds to win the division at the moment.
The Lions earned the No. 3 seed in the NFC last season, but the division won't be as easy this season with the Green Bay Packers (-190 to make the playoffs) right on their heels.
4. Dallas Cowboys (-225)
No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the Eagles in the early 2000s, but as of now, Dallas is a slight favorite to do so in the 2024 season.
Regardless, there's a good chance the Cowboys and Eagles are the NFC East winner and No. 5 seed no matter how this division shakes out.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (-200)
Back in the No. 5 spot.
At -200 to make the playoffs, the Eagles are expected to contend again, but they are slightly behind Dallas in the odds.
Maybe additions like Bryce Huff, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Saquon Barkley will push Philly over the top.
6. Green Bay Packers (-190)
Jordan Love and the Packers won a playoff game as the No. 7 seed last season, and now oddsmakers think they have a chance to get back to the playoffs, giving them postseason odds with an implied probability of 65.52 percent.
7. Chicago Bears (-120)
This is a shocker.
Chicago is the seventh -- and final -- team favored to make the playoffs in the 2024 season. That's a lot of trust in Caleb Williams (the presumptive No. 1 overall pick), but Chicago has built a solid offense with moves for Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift this offseason. Still, I'm not sold on Chicago at this number.
First Team(s) Out in Playoff Odds
Los Angeles Rams (+115)
Here's what I wrote about the Los Angeles Rams as a team that could make the playoffs at plus money this season:
Aaron Donald retired, but this Los Angeles Rams team easily made the playoffs last season and may have a weak schedule if the Seattle Seahawks take a step back without Pete Carroll.
Matthew Stafford was terrific in 2023, throwing for 3,965 yards, 24 scores, and just 11 picks in 15 games. The Rams went 9-6 in his starts, and the team could be in play for a wild card spot in the NFC again in 2024. The Chicago Bears are favored to make the playoffs, but the Rams aren't. That's insane.
Sean McVay's team should be among the top seven in the NFC in 2024.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145)
Ironically, the Bucs are another next team out, and they're another team that I think can sneak into the playoffs in the NFC:
Look, I'm not sold on the AFC South automatically going to the Atlanta Falcons next season, which means the Tampa Buccaneers are in play to make the postseason.
Yes, Tampa Bay needed just nine wins to make the playoffs last season, but we can't discount the fact that the team brought back Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Lavonte David in free agency. The Bucs also kept safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (for now) but franchise tagged him.
I don't think the Bucs are title contenders, but this division is still the weakest in the NFL. There's no reason Tampa Bay can't come close to last season's success, and I'm far from sold on Atlanta as an odds-on favorite. The Minnesota Vikings won exactly one division title in six seasons with Kirk Cousins at the helm, and he is coming off of a torn Achilles.
The Bucs have some serious value at this number.
Odds update periodically and are subject to change.