3 Player Props to Bet for Bengals-Jaguars on Thursday Night Football

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals face off on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, as Trevor Lawrence still searches for the first win of his NFL career.

This matchup features the No. 1 overall pick in each of the last two NFL drafts in Joe Burrow and Lawrence. 

Burrow has led the Bengals to an impressive 2-1 start with wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati was one of the biggest risers in my NFL Power Rankings this week.

There’s nothing like a standalone NFL game, so let’s have some fun and place some player prop picks in this one. Here’s what I’m taking with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Joe Burrow UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

Zac Taylor and the Bengals got their franchise quarterback back from a torn ACL and drafted a receiver No. 5 overall, so naturally they’re the most run-heavy offense in all of football through the first three weeks. 

Burrow has yet to attempt over 30 passes in a game, and he only threw 18 in a dominant win over Pittsburgh in Week 3. Joe Mixon has been strong in the running game, and this matchup with the lowly Jaguars could be another positive game script for Mixon. 

Burrow may make some big throws (he has seven touchdown passes this season), but in a potential blowout spot (Cincy is a 7.5-point home favorite) I don’t see Taylor unleashing Burrow for a season-high in pass attempts. 

Joe Mixon UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+100)

If you couldn’t tell by my first pick, I’m expecting the Bengals to deploy a run-heavy scheme in Week 4. 

Mixon made four catches in the season opener against Minnesota, but he’s only made two catches on three targets in his last two games. On top of that, sixth-round rookie Chris Evans played five snaps in Week 3 against the Steelers and was targeted two times, making both catches for 26 yards. 

I’m not saying Mixon is getting phased out as a pass catcher, but at plus odds on the under, I think this is a solid play. Jacksonville has allowed just 15 catches to running backs this season, and eight of those came last week against the pass-happy Cardinals and receiving back Chase Edmonds. 

Taylor is going to stick with what has worked so far this season and use Mixon mainly as a weapon on the ground. 

James Robinson OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Moving the focus to Jacksonville’s running game, James Robinson has actually been a major threat out of the backfield in terms of targets the first three weeks of the season. 

Robinson has received 15 targets from Trevor Lawrence through the first three games, catching 12 passes for 92 yards. 

He didn’t have over 23.5 receiving yards in Week 2 when he saw just three targets, but he went over that number in Week 1 and Week 3 when he saw six looks. If you forgot, the Bengals allowed Najee Harris to make 14 (!!) catches on 19 targets last week. 

Robinson may only need a few grabs to hit the over on this receiving prop, and with Lawrence’s pension for checking down shifting focus from the injured Travis Etienne to Robinson, I like him to hit this on Thursday.

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