College Basketball Best Bets Today (Predictions for Arkansas, UConn-Villanova and More on Feb. 22)

We are back on the college hoops grind after a few days off with a loaded Tuesday slate. I was able to recharge the batteries over the long weekend away from the odds board and will look to close the regular season strong into conference tournament play.

I left at a good time in my opinion after a shaky week or so, I'll look to get back on track with a fresh set of eyes. Here are a handful of plays I made on Tuesday, but if you want others, I'll be posting them on my betstamp in real time here. I omitted a few due to time and some line movement away from them.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 66-61-3 (+1.96 units)

Arkansas (PK) vs. Florida

This matchup should set up well for them as both teams struggle to shoot from the perimeter, but the Razorbacks have a significant advantage on the inside.

While Colin Castleton is the Gators rock solid rim protector (32nd nationally in block percentage), the Hogs have the size in the frontcourt to dominate inside.

The Gators struggle on the glass and also lack the playmaking to generate a ton of close looks from inside. More than half of their shots in SEC play is coming from beyond the arc, but they aren't hitting them, shooting below 30%.

Florida's shooting proximity is bottom 40 in the country, while Arkansas shuts down the inside as well. The team is physical and protects the rock (second lowest turnover rate) which can stymie the Gators transition attack. If Mike White's team is forced to try and execute in the half court, I don't like their chances against the size of the Razorbacks.

While Eric Musselman's team still has issues shooting efficiently, I love that they crash the glass on both ends, make their free throws and are physical with their opponents. This is a tough spot for the Gators who I don't think very highly of coming off an emotional close win over Auburn on Saturday.

I'm taking Arkansas to grab another victory, I also added a unit at -115 on the moneyline, making this a 2U play.

PICK: Arkansas ML (2U)

Michigan State vs. Iowa OVER 154

From this morning's full game preview:

I believe Iowa is a bit overvalued in this spot, but I'm not rushing to back the Spartans given their poor play, I'd rather play the over, which I peg closer to 157.

The Hawkeyes are terrible on the defensive glass, bottom 100 nationally, and foul at an alarming rate in conference play. The Spartans have a physical front court with Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham that draw fouls at a high rate and as a team hit 80% of their free throws. On the other side, I don't see Michigan State having an answer for Iowa star forward Keegan Murray, who is playing at an All American level, averaging 23 points and 8 rebounds on 56/36/72 shooting splits.

Both teams are inside the top three in average offensive possession length in conference play and I see a ton of possessions and foul shots for each side.

Further, another Iowa trend to keep an eye on: the team is 13-3-1 to the over at Carver-Hawkeye and are 15-5-1 as a favorite. In games that are projected to be played on Iowa's terms, the game typically flies over.

PICK: OVER 154, play to 154.5

Central Michigan vs. Ohio OVER 142.5

These two played on Feb. 10 and the total closed at 141.5. The final was a 81-72 Ohio victory, clearing the over with ease. So, I'll go back to the well in a spot that I don't think has adjusted enough (we'll see the opposite case below)

Ohio is laying a massive number here, -17 at WynnBET, and should have little issue scoring against the CMU defense that allows teams to hoist from three and fouls at a high rate. On the road, the Chippewas defense reaches bottom 20 levels, per barttorvik.com, and the fast tempo of each team should lead to plenty of possessions.

In the matchup played nearly two weeks ago, it wasn't a highly efficient offensive game, but featured 47 free throws. I'm expecting we see Ohio push north of 80 points once again given that they had an uncharacteristically poor night from the free throw line and was sloppy with the ball, while Central Michigan has the ability to do their part from three, rating inside the top 100 nationally.

I show a number edge on the over despite it going away from me, I'll play it.

PICK: OVER 142.5, play to 144

Villanova vs. UConn UNDER 137.5

I'm confused by the line movement towards the over, which opened widely at 136.5 and has gone as high as 138.5 before settling at 137.5 as of this writing. Let's go back to that Feb. 5 meeting, just 17 days ago, with the total closing at 128.5! The game flew over the total with 159 points scored, but doesn't this feel like a massive overreaction?

A nine-point adjustment in two-and-a-half weeks feels misguided and I believe that people are overlooking the fact that these are two of the stronger defensive teams in the Big East. Not to mention, the second meeting between opponents are typically lower scoring with more familiarity on the court. In the first game, the two opponents combined for 35-for-38 foul shooting and 14-for-31 3-point shooting. Those are high end offensive outputs and I don't see it being replicated.

I don't expect the same hot shooting and I expect a much tighter game with higher stakes. Both teams are strong at defending the rim and also limiting transition opportunities, so I'll side with the under as one of my favorite bets on the Tuesday night slate, making this a 2U play.

PICK: UNDER 137.5, play to 135 (2U)

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