College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 3
By Reed Wallach
Week 3 is, for the most part, the final week of non-conference play. A lot of teams will start to play familiar foes in Week 4 and begin the bulk of their schedule, but teams can't overlook the opponent at hand this Saturday.
We have a majority of the AP Top 25 in action in Week 3 as teams continue to prepare for conference play. However, No. 1 Georgia is one of the handful of SEC teams that start SEC play this weekend. Will the team respond after a few slow starts in non-conference play and take care of business as a big favorite against South Carolina?
Check out our picks against the spread (ATS) this weekend for every Top 25 team:
South Carolina vs. No. 1 Georgia Prediction and Pick
PICK: Georgia -27.5
Since South Carolina won at Georgia four years ago in double overtime, Georgia has won the last three meetings 133-36. The Bulldogs have out-muscled South Carolina in this particular matchup and this game is shaping up to be a similar type of game given the point spread and the early returns of a suspect South Carolina offensive line.
Bowling Green vs. No. 2 Michigan Prediction and Pick
PICK: Michigan: -40.5
No. 3 Florida State vs. Boston College Prediction and Pick
PICK: Florida State -26
Wyoming vs. No. 4 Texas Prediction and Pick
PICK: Texas -28
Western Kentucky vs. No. 6 Ohio State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Western Kentucky +28
While there is a lot of excitement around the announcement that Kyle McCord will be the starter for the Buckeyes going forward, that's a red flag for the Buckeyes chances of contending for any postseason hardware this season.
McCord is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt so far against two lackluster defenses in Youngstown State and Indiana. He also has made only three big-time throws to three turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
The Buckeyes have Notre Dame on deck, so I'm not sure they are going to reveal the playbook with McCord under center, opting for a more vanilla scheme against one of the most electric offenses in college football in Western Kentucky, who bolsters the 2022 passing leader in Austin Reed.
With limited incentive to run up the scoreboard, I'll take WKU to cover a big number.
No. 7 Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick
PICK: Penn State -14.5
From Josh Yourish, who is backing the Nittany Lions to cover:
The Illini defense that was so dominant with Devon Witherspoon last season is not the same in 2023. They are 101st in yards allowed per play at 6.2 after finishing second in that category last year at 4.4. Penn State is gaining 7.2 yards per play which is 12th and we haven’t even mentioned its superstar sophomore quarterback Drew Allar.
Allar has been borderline flawless through two games, completing 78.2% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns, no picks, and he’s only taken one sack. Penn State is a cover machine, so let’s back the Nittany Lions on the road this week.
No. 8 Washington vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Washington -16.5
Central Michigan vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
PICK: Notre Dame -34.5
No. 10 Alabama vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick
PICK: Alabama -32
No. 11 Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
PICK: Florida +6.5
While Tennessee enters with a ranking next to its name, this team is being rated based on last season's success. Joe Milton is still a concern at quarterback. The Vols signal caller hasn't beaten up on the likes of Virginia and Austin Peay like josh Heupel would have hoped, the team is 97th in EPA/Pass through two games.
While Florida's offense has its fair share of concerns with Graham Mertz leading the way, this feels like a line based around the perception of the two teams and not reality. UF had to play its opener in one of the most difficult places to play, Utah's Rice-Eccles Stadium, and the defense kept the offense in the game.
Now, at home, I believe Florida can keep this within a touchdown and possibly win the game outright. Through two games (a small sample size) Florida is 27th in net yards per play while Tennessee is 28th.
Weber State vs. No. 12 Utah Prediction and Pick
PICK: N/A
Hawai'i vs. No. 13 Oregon Prediction and Pick
PICK: Oregon -38
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No. 14 LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
PICK: LSU -9.5
No. 15 Kansas State vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick
PICK: Missouri +4.5
San Diego State vs. No. 16 Oregon State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Oregon State -24.5
Oregon State vs. San Diego State betting preview
The Beavers are a consistent team that can lean on its run game if the secondary is shutting down the aerial attack, but I don't see much resistance after the Aztecs allowed UCLA to score 35 points and average eight yards per play in the loss
The Bruins outgained San Diego State by nearly 300 yards in the 25-point victory.
With the Oregon State offensive line giving the team a push up front, and Damien Martinez (averaging 10 yards per carry on 25 rushes) bursting upfield, the Beavers are strong bet to win this one going away.
Georgia Tech vs. No. 17 Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
PICK: Georgia Tech +19.5
Colorado State vs. No. 18 Colorado Prediction and Pick
PICK: Colorado State +23
No. 19 Oklahoma vs. Tulsa Prediction and Pick
PICK: Oklahoma -28
Minnesota vs. No. 20 North Carolina Prediction and Pick
PICK: North Carolina -7.5
Our Johs Yourish is laying it with the Tar Heels, here's why:
Minnesota has had an easy start to the year against two terrible offenses. Nebraska is led by a quarterback who is desperate to turn the ball over and Eastern Michigan plays at a painfully slow pace.
Yet, the Golden Gophers are still only 29th in opponent yards per play. They are 64th in rushing yards allowed per game and are fifth in opponent passing yards at just 92 yards a game.
That has everything to do with their competition and going from facing Jeff Sims and Austin Smith to Drake Maye is like going from sparring against an oversized teddy bear to boxing Mike Tyson with no headgear.
Maye is going to slice through this Minnesota defense and there is no way that Athan Kaliakmanis, who is completing 57.6% of his passes, will be able to keep up.
UNC showed against South Carolina that its defensive line is very good, and I think Minnesota will have a tough time against Beau Atkinson and the rest of the UNC pass-rush.
Northwestern vs. No. 21 Duke Prediction and Pick
PICK: Duke -18.5
Bethune-Cookman vs. No. 22 Miami Prediction and Pick
PICK: N/A
Northern Colorado vs. No. 23 Washington State Prediction and Pick
PICK: N/A
North Carolina Central vs. No. 24 UCLA Prediction and Pick
PICK: N/A
Western Michigan vs. No. 25 Iowa Prediction and Pick
PICK: Iowa -28.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!