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Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today for Men's Final Four

By Iain MacMillan

Mar 3, 2024; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives the ball
Mar 3, 2024; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives the ball / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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Strap in, folks. The long-awaited Final Four is set to take place tonight.

Last night, we were treated to a couple of exciting Final Four games in the women's bracket and tonight we'll get to watch the men. It's UConn vs. Alabama on one side of the bracket and Purdue vs. NC State on the other side.

If you're looking for some plays to tail, you've come to the right place. Let's dive into it.

If you want to bet on today's action, click the link below to sign up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you do, you'll receive $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager!

Best College Basketball Bets Today

  • Purdue -9.5 vs. NC State
  • UConn Team Total OVER 87.5
  • Donovan Clingan OVER 15.5 points

NC State vs. Purdue prediction

Our college basketball expert, Reed Wallach, broke down why he's backing Purdue in his full betting preview, which you can read here. This is a portion of what he had to say:

It’s tough to see NC State keeping up – even though the team continues to smash expectations.

However, the team hasn't faced a post-reliant offense en route to the Final Four, which of course Purdue is with Edey on the block.

The Wolfpack are an average post defense, ranking in the 44th percentile in points per possession allowed, per Synergy Sports, and the team sends teams to the free throw rate at a nationally average rate, according to KenPom. That will be a point of emphasis in this game with Edey leading the nation in free throw attempts and the Wolfpack essentially running a seven-man rotation at this point in the season.

Edey has shown he is capable of passing out of double teams, the strength to fight through post defense and draw fouls, or turn around and finish over big men. Given the way he is able to use his body to get to his spot or get fouled in the process, I don’t envision NC State will have an answer for him.

On the other side, Burns will have his hands full on the block against Edey, giving up about seven inches of height to the soon-to-be back-to-back Wooden Award winner. The Wolfpack will need to have a strong shooting performance, which hasn’t been the catalyst for its run, it has done it with its defensive ability.

NC State’s opponents are shooting about 24% from beyond the arc in the four tournament games. While a testament to the team’s defense, I do believe there is some looming regression for the Wolfpack as the team needs to give Edey attention, which can open up perimeter shots for the Boilermakers’ stable of shooters that are shooting over 40% from beyond the arc as a team this season.

The end of the road is here for NC State, and I think it comes in blowout fashion.

Alabama vs. UConn prediction

Instead of betting on a side in this one, Wallach wrote in his betting preview about why he's backing a team total bet instead:

Alabama does have a path to victory, and it revolves around its torrid three-point shooting. The Crimson Tide is a 37% three-point shooting unit while hoisting them at a top 20 clip nationally.

Overall, the Crimson Tide bolster an analytical sound shot profile behind coach Nate Oats, all threes and layups, but the team will have an issue against an elite UConn defense that does an elite job of running teams off the three-point line (48th in opponent three-point rate) and has Clingan around the rim to stymie shots there.

Of course, outlier shooting games can happen, but the Crimson Tide can’t slow down UConn’s offense that is top 10 in effective field goal percentage, and 13th in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.

Alabama’s defense, despite this run to the Final Four, still is outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is incredibly poor in the frontcourt, bottom 100 nationally in causing turnovers, defensive rebounding percentage, and opponent free throw rate allowed.

I don’t believe the Crimson Tide will have an answer for UConn at all. The Huskies' elite motion offense is going to unpack this defense who is prone to getting into foul trouble and will be whistled plenty during the array of off-ball screens the Huskies run.

UConn can blow this open if Alabama isn’t on from three, but I believe the Huskies team total over is the path to take in this matchup given the Crimson Tide's quick pace and little recourse to slowing down the Huskies.

Alabama vs. UConn player prop

If you want a player prop for the game between Alabama and UConn, Wallach has you covered there as well:

Despite his impact on the court, it doesn’t always manifest itself in the box score for the sophomore big man Clingan.

However, that wasn’t the case on Saturday in UConn’s Elite Eight blowout win against Illinois, scoring 22 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and blocking five shots. I envision Clingan filling it up again in the Final Four against a lackluster Alabama frontcourt.

The Crimson Tide struggle to defend the rim, 110th in field goal percentage allowed at the cup, and also have an opponent free throw rate that is outside the top 300 nationally. I believe the Huskies will look to attack on the interior against the foul prone Crimson Tide and that will feature plenty of usage for Clingan and free throw tries that can help send this over.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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