Every AFC Team's Odds to Earn the No. 1 Seed in the NFL Playoffs
By Ben Heisler
With just one week of football left to play, the AFC's top spot remains wide open for the taking.
Here are the latest odds at WynnBET for all contending teams to make their way to the top of the conference.
Titans Odds to Earn the No. 1 Seed in the AFC
Tennessee's path to the top spot in the conference is the easiest and most simple of them all. Win on the road vs. the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon, and the No. 1 seed is theirs.
Tennessee remains a 10-point favorite at Houston after opening as 11-point favorites on the road. For them to win straight-up, they are -525 moneyline favorites this week at WynnBET to get it done.
Not exactly the most enticing bet.
Chiefs Odds to Earn the No. 1 Seed in AFC
For Kansas City’s path to the No. 1 seed, they'll need to win on the road against the Denver Broncos on Saturday.
The Chiefs are 10-point favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook and -500 on the moneyline to secure a win in Denver in Week 18. For what it's worth, the last time Denver beat K.C. was back on Thursday, September 17th, 2015. The Broncos haven't beaten the Chiefs at home since September 14, 2014.
Should they defeat the Broncos, they'll need the Texans (+400 moneyline) to upset Tennessee in Houston.
BetSided's Peter Dewey broke down what the odds look like if both scenarios play out:
"A parlay at WynnBET with these two teams winning would cash at +500 odds. So, the implied probability that Kansas City ends up with the No. 1 seed is 16.67 percent. On the other hand, Tennessee has a 84 percent chance of ending up with the one seed based on implied probability. "
If Kansas City fails to move back into the No. 1 spot in Week 18, it will face either the Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers or Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round depending on Week 18’s outcomes.
Bengals Odds to Earn No. 1 Seed in AFC
Peter explains the two potential scenarios that must take effect for Cincinnati to make their way to the top spot in the division:
Scenario No. 1:
- Cincinnati Bengals (-165) at Cleveland Browns
- Denver Broncos (+375) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Houston Texans (+400) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Miami Dolphins (+240) vs. New England Patriots
By parlaying all of these moneyline bets, the odds end up at +12869 at WynnBET; an implied probability of just 0.77 percent.
Scenario No. 2
- Cincinnati Bengals (-165) at Cleveland Browns
- Denver Broncos (+375) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Houston Texans (+400) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Buffalo Bills (-1300) vs. New York Jets
A moneyline parlay these games is still fairly low, but much higher than the first scenario. The Bengals’ odds of getting the No. 1 seed are +4008; an implied probability of 2.43 percent.
Cincinnati has already gone from worst to first in the AFC North, cashing in on their +2000 odds to win the division entering the 2021 season. If the Bengals also get the No. 1 seed, this would be one of the best turnarounds in the NFL in recent memory.
Odds for Patriots to Earn No. 1 Seed in AFC
Once again, Peter lays out all the ways New England can find themselves at the top of the AFC. It's worth noting that even though the Buffalo Bills could win the division ahead of New England if both teams win out, there's still no way for them to end up with the No. 1 seed.
Here are the moneyline odds for each team that need a victory for New England to grab the No. 1 seed in the conference.
- New England Patriots (-290) at Miami Dolphins
- Houston Texans (+400) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Denver Broncos (+350) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- New York Jets (+775) at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots need three massive favorites to fall to teams that are double-digits underdogs in Week 18 for this scenario to take place.
A parlay at WynnBET Sportsbook for all four of these games to go the Patriots’ way comes in at +26376 odds.
A $25 bet would earn you $6,594.07 if all four of these teams win.
