Kenneth Walker III Still Being Overlooked in Heisman Odds

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III has been running all over every team the Spartans have come across. Yet, his odds to win the Heisman Trophy are just fourth best right now at WynnBET Sportsbook. While I understand that Bryce Young, Matt Corral, and CJ Stroud deserve to be ahead of Walker on the board, the gap between No. 3 and No. 4 is just too wide for me not to notice the potential betting value at hand. Young and Corral are both locked at +200 to hoist the hardware and Stroud is +600. So why is Walker III more than twice that at +1250? His odds are closer to those of Bijan Robinson (+1500) and Desmond Ridder (+1500). 

Walker’s case for the Heisman

Since the year 2000, just three running backs have won the Heisman Trophy -- Reggie Bush (2005), Mark Ingram Jr. (2011), and Derrick Henry (2015). This is important because the three players ahead of Walker in the odds are all quarterbacks. This does explain slightly why his odds are as low as they are, but his play should be making up for that. 

Walker's 913 yards are 122 more than the 2nd best on the list, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker. For reference, 2nd and 5th place are separated by just 3 yards. Walker also has 4 fewer attempts than Tucker does, an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Walker also ranks 3rd in the league with 9 touchdowns, though he is tied with seven other players. 

I will say that Walker does lack formidable stats in the receiving game, and admittedly that does hurt his chances. In five games this year, Walker has just four catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. Bringing his total on the year to 10. 

Another part of the equation that voters take into account is team success. While two of the three quarterbacks ahead of Walker in the odds are on higher-ranked teams, Michigan State has something that the other teams don’t: A spotless record. They are one of 10 teams in FBS Div-1 that head into Week 7 with a 6-0 record, and none of his competitors can claim that. This is particularly true for CJ Stroud whose Ohio State Buckeyes play MSU in their penultimate game before their annual date with the Wolverines. 

This is to say that if Walker has a real shot at cashing your betting ticket for the Heisman, he needs to do more than just put up numbers. I think that if MSU wins out, that could be enough. It would saddle Ohio State with two losses on the year and make the running back the only candidate on an undefeated team. Maybe follow that up with a Big Ten championship and a run in the playoffs and BAM! You got yourself a solid Heisman candidate out of the backfield for the first time in a few years. 

Before last week's win over Rutgers, Walker was +2500 to win the Heisman, so grab this line before he has another great game and the odds move out of your favor.