NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Rams, Bengals, Bills Highlight This Week's Top Upset Picks
We are down to just eight remaining teams in the NFL playoffs, and favorites have dominated the postseason so far.
Will that change in the divisional round?
Our Reed Wallach picked the San Francisco 49ers to win in the wild card round, but is there a team you should bet on to pull off the upset this week?
Here are our favorite picks, with all odds via WynnBET:
Buffalo Bills (+105) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The two offenses are neck-and-neck this season, so they're basically a wash when evaluating this game. What you need to look at instead, is each team's defense. Sure, the Chiefs defense was better in the second half of the season compared to the first half, but they still rank 28th in opponent yards per play, 30th in opponent yards per carry, and 23rd in opponent yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, the Bills rank first, 11th, and first in those three stats.
The Chiefs biggest advantage on offense is their third down conversion rate, which ranks first in the NFL by a wide margin, converting 53% of them. Now they face a Bills defense that boasts the top mark in opponent third down conversion rate, allowing a first down on just 32.02% of opponent third down tries.
It was always the Bills. – Iain MacMillan
Los Angeles Rams (+125) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'm picking against Tom Brady in the divisional round of the playoffs. What could possibly go wrong?
All the trends back Brady in this game. He's 14-2 lifetime in the divisional round of the postseason, 12-1 at home, and the Bucs are tied with the Green Bay Packers for the most wins at home this season.
However, I think the Rams have turned the corner and are as dangerous as ever in this postseason. The return of Cam Akers to this team cannot be overstated with his ability to both break tackles inside, and make explosive plays as a pass catcher. Sure, the Bucs gave up the third fewest rushing yards in the league, but teams rarely ran against them in the first place.
When they did, however, they ranked 15th in yards-per-attempt, and are allowing more than five yards per carry over their last three games.
Factor in Odell Beckham's brilliant game versus the Cardinals and the Rams can come at opposing defenses from multiple directions.
This Rams team was designed to be great in the postseason and I expect their run to continue Sunday afternoon versus a banged up Bucs team. -- Ben Heisler
Cincinnati Bengals (+152) vs. Tennessee Titans
I’m all over the Bengals this week, who are 4-1 against the spread this season as a road underdog, and I can back them to upset as well.
Cincinnati has an elite passing offense, and the Titans have allowed the eight most passing yards in the NFL this season. Ryan Tannehill doesn’t want to get into a shootout, and while Derrick Henry may be back, do we know what capacity he will be playing at?
The Bengals are a little banged up with Trey Hendrickson hurt, but they allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards and just 4.3 yards per carry this season.
I think Cincy is live to pull this off and potentially even win the AFC. – Peter Dewey
NFL Upset Picks to Date:
LAST WEEK: 0-3
SEASON RECORD: 35-30-1