NFL Straight Up Picks for Every Game in Week 1 (Bet These Underdogs)
By Peter Dewey
Every NFL team is hoping to get off to a hot start in Week 1 of the 2023 season, as each game means so much for the playoff race in the AFC and NFC every season.
Getting out to a slow start can doom a team in a 17-game season, and Week 1 usually brings a few surprise results that can change how certain teams are viewed.
Now that we can get back to betting on the NFL, I am going to take a stab at predicting the winner of each matchup in Week 1. While some of these plays are going to have a lot of juice in the betting market depending on how big of a favorite we’re picking, there are some interesting underdogs out there as well.
For more Week 1 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these moneyline picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 1.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game!
With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 1!
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -218
Travis Kelce’s injury has shifted the odds in this game, but I have to back the defending champs on opening night at home. Kansas City has averaged over 37 Week 1 points per game since Patrick Mahomes took over as the team’s starter. I still trust this offense to get things done against Detroit.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -485
I wouldn’t recommend laying this juice with the Ravens (unless you’re attempting a moneyline parlay), but they should dominate Houston’s rookie quarterback (CJ Stroud) and head coach (DeMeco Ryans) in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bengals -135
Yes, Cincy looked awful in Week 1 last season, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals have one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. I still don’t know what to expect from Deshaun Watson after a poor showing in six games in 2023.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings -258
Minnesota overachieved last season, but in a weak NFC, I think the team is a little undervalued entering the 2023 campaign. There’s no way I’d back a Baker Mayfield led Bucs team as sizable underdogs on the road here.
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Tennessee Titans +142
Our first upset!
Tennessee was 6-6 with Ryan Tannehill under center last season, and this is the freshest Derrick Henry will be all season. I’m also not sold on Derek Carr being the quarterback savior for New Orleans after he threw a ton of picks and was benched in 2022.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Panthers +154
Can Bryce Young get a win in his debut? I don’t hate taking a shot on it considering Desmond Ridder is just as unproven. Both of these defenses are solid as well, so don’t be shocked if we get a low-scoring nailbiter.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -225
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars should be one of the best teams in the AFC this season. Without Jonathan Taylor – for now – the Colts should be one of the worst.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -135
Two elite defenses, two second-year quarterbacks and two of the best coaches in the NFL. This should be a fun matchup, but I like the 49ers’ offense a little more. I’ll take them as road favorites.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Commanders -310
Again, I wouldn’t recommend bet on the Commanders at this price, but they are my Survivor Pick and I think they win. I’m not sure I’ll pick Arizona to win a game all season.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chargers -165
The Dolphins are already dealing with a bunch of injuries, and the Los Angeles offense should be much better in 2023 with Keenan Allen healthy and Quentin Johnston joining the receiver room.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Raiders +164
Denver has not beaten Las Vegas since 2019, and I’m going to wait and see before I believe in Russell Wilson. Plus, Josh Jacobs torched Denver on the ground in 2022.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -205
The defending NFC champs are barely over -200 favorites against Mac Jones? Am I missing something here?
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bears -115
I have a lot more confidence in Justin Fields than Jordan Love, but this game truly is a pick’em. I’ll take Chicago at home, but it may be my least confident pick of the week.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -245
If Cooper Kupp (hamstring) sits out this game, I can’t see Los Angeles having enough offense to beat a young and talented Seattle team.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -166
Daniel Jones and the Giants took a step forward last season, but I still think Dallas has the talent to be the third best – or maybe even second best – team in the NFC in 2023.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -142
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have a tough Week 1 matchup against Josh Allen and the Buffalo. I lean with the Bills here, especially since we don’t know what we’ll get from New York’s running game (Breece Hall off an ACL, Dalvin Cook in a new offense).
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.