WHAT A WEEK 4 for NFL straight up picks! I went 13-3 in the Week 4 slate, losing only with the Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
It’s going to be hard to reach a performance like that again, but it’s set our record up in a good place heading into Week 5:
- Week 4 Record: 13-3
- Season Long Record: 38-26
For more Week 5 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
There are four teams on the bye in Week 5 – the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks – which means there are only 14 games to bet on this week.
That’s not a reason to stop picking the winner for every game, and I’d love to keep this 12-game over .500 cushion that we’ve built through the first four weeks.
Whether you decide to tail or fade these moneyline picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 5.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game!
With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 5!
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Commanders -290
The Bears haven't won a game since last October, and they’ve been more than just bad in 2023.
Chicago is 31st in yards per play allowed while ranking 17th in yards per play on offense. The team is also fifth in the league with eight turnovers this season.
The Commanders haven’t been great, but they are 2-0 against lesser competition and hung tough with the Eagles in Week 4. I think they handle a Bears team that has yet to cover a spread so far in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -245
I’m just not sold on this Jacksonville offense right now, as it needed a defensive score to really pull away from Atlanta last week.
Meanwhile, the Bills have outscored their last three opponents by 90. Yes, you read that right.
I think Josh Allen and company will be a little too much for the Jaguars’ offense to keep up.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -575
Is there a more obvious pick this week? I don’t think so.
Miami ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points, yards per play and net yards per pass attempt while the Giants rank 32nd, 31st and 32nd in those respective categories.
I’ve never been a Daniel Jones believer, but he has absolutely zero chance behind a bad offensive line and without running back Saquon Barkley.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins should dominate this Giants team that also has allowed the fifth most net yards per pass attempt this season.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -425
A chalky start to these picks, but it’s warranted. Detroit is my Survivor Pick this week, as the team has the offense to put the Panthers away with ease.
Carolina is 30th in yards per play this season while the Lions are ninth.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -198
Mike Tomlin has actually done a good job limiting Lamar Jackson in his career, but this Pittsburgh offense is brutal.
Kenny Pickett (knee) is questionable for this game, which may not even matter since he’s played so poorly. The Ravens are one of the best defenses in the NFL – tied for first in opponent yards per play – so they should make quick work of the Steelers, even on the road.
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Texans +110
The first upset I see this week, mainly because I do not trust Desmond Ridder, who hasn’t shown he cannot make the throws necessary if Atlanta falls behind in a game.
CJ Stroud, on the other hand, has looked terrific the last two weeks beating the Jaguars and Steelers. I think Houston is a little underrated in this spot.
New Orleans vs. New England Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Saints +102
Honestly, I don’t love either team in this game, but I think the Saints have better quarterback play with Derek Carr.
The Patriots have scored just 18 points over their last two games and are now down Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon – two of their best defensive players.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Colts –118
Anthony Richardson was impressive in a comeback effort in Week 4, and now the Colts may be getting Jonathan Taylor back.
I think this will be a pretty even matchup between run-first teams with strong run defenses, so I’ll side with the home team in a divisional matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -218
I do see a world where the Rams can win this game – especially if Cooper Kupp returns, but Matthew Stafford is dealing with a hip injury and now has to face a vaunted Philly front seven. I don’t love it.
The Eagles have not been as dominant as last season, but they’re still finding ways to win. I think they do the same in Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bengals -166
This is my last-ditch effort with Cincy after backing it almost every week to open this season.
The Bengals have been the worst offense in the NFL – 32nd in yards per play – but they are talented enough on offense to turn things around. Arizona isn’t really trying to win (it would prefer the draft pick), so despite it playing well considering the expectations this season, I’m going to fade the team this week.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -225
Patrick Mahomes got easily his worst performance of the season out of the way last week against the New York Jets, and now he takes on a Minnesota team that was torched by the best offense it played (Philly) for 34 points in Week 2.
The Vikings also allowed 28 points to the Chargers in Week 3. One win over Carolina is not changing my thoughts on Kirk Cousins and company.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Broncos -130
Just when I thought I was out, the Broncos pulled me back in.
Denver has quite literally the worst defense ever right now, but do we really trust Zach Wilson to take advantage of it?
Russell Wilson (nine scores to two picks) has actually been really solid in 2023, so if his defense can give him anything, Denver should win this game at home.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -170
I think there is a real chance that San Francisco could go 15-2 or better this season. That’s just how good this team is on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers currently rank second in yards per play on offense and fourth in yards per play allowed on defense.
This is the toughest test Dallas has had all season long, and I’m not sure the Cowboys will rise to the occasion on the road.
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Packers -135
The Packers have their problems (Jordan Love’s completion percentage being one of them), but the Raiders are a mess since winning in Week 1.
It may be Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for Las Vegas, but he has a five touchdown to six interception ratio in three games this season. The Raiders are 21st in opponent yards per play, so I wouldn't be shocked if Green Bay’s offense gets going in this matchup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.