NFL Week 4 Upset Picks (Patriots Are Sneaky Pick, Plus One Trend to Trust)

After going 4-1 through the first two weeks in upset picks, the BetSided team saw two tough losses in Week 3, setting up a perfect bounce-back win in Week 4.

The New Orleans Saints nearly came through for Peter Dewey, but they blew a 17-0 lead in the fourth quarter to the Green Bay Packers. The other upset pick, the Tennessee Titans from Iain MacMillan, didn't have much of a chance with the Titans' offense struggling.

Still, we're up over three units on the season...

2023 Upset Picks Record: 4-3 (+3.17 units)

For more Week 4 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!

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Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 4 of 2023 Season

New England Patriots (+230) at Dallas Cowboys

There's no doubt that this is a bold call, but I think the New England Patriots can upset the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4 action.

I listed the Cowboys as the most fraudulent team in the NFL this week, and for good reason. Yes, they have blowout wins against the Giants and Jets, but their metrics don't hold up.

They're just 12th in the NFL in net yards per play at +0.2, despite playing a cupcake schedule.

Now, they play a Patriots team that can at the very least match them defensively. I also trust Bill Belichick a lot more than Mike McCarthy.

I'll take New England to win this game outright. -- Iain MacMillan

Baltimore Ravens (+124) at Cleveland Browns

There are plenty of reasons why I love the Baltimore Ravens in this matchup, starting with a crazy Lamar Jackson trend.

In his NFL career, Jackson is 9-4 straight up as an underdog, a spot he finds himself in on Sunday. Not only that, but Jackson's Ravens have covered the spread in 16 of 20 games as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less in his career.

The Cleveland Browns picked up a nice win over Tennessee, but they still are going to have to rely heavily on Deshaun Watson, who has struggled for the most part since coming to Cleveland. That's going to be tough to do against the No. 2 defense in the NFL.

Baltimore is a great bet to win outright in Week 4. -- Peter Dewey

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.