NFL Week 5 Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Dolphins-Jets, Chargers-Browns Still Hang on Key Numbers)

Betting the number as opposed to betting on a team is consistently a key factor when wagering on the NFL.

Last week, we touched on two key totals that appeared to be close to moving. Midway through the week, we focused on the Thursday Night Football over of 46.5 between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, as well as the under 51.5 between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens from the Charm City.

While those two plays went 1-1, we were on the right side of the closing line value, or CLV. for both games The Dolphins-Bengals game closed at 48.5, two points higher than the mid-week line of 46.5, and the Bills-Ravens total dropped down to 50.5 at kickoff, passing through a key number of 51.

This week, we're taking a look at two opportunities to take teams against the spread before the "hook," or extra half-point takes effect.

Here are two games bettors should look to jump on before the lines move past a potential key number.

NFL Week 5 Games to Bet Now

• Dolphins (-3) at Jets
• Browns (+3) vs. Chargers

Dolphins (-3) at Jets

I discussed this play in further detail in our Miami-New York game preview, but I'd be very surprised if this line stays at -3 for the remainder of the week.

The Dolphins lost their first game of the season as well as failed to cover the spread in their Thursday Night Football loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. Now, they have extended time to prepare for a below-average Jets team that is two remarkable fourth quarter double-digit comebacks away from being 0-4 instead of 2-2.

Miami has a decisive advantage offensively with Football Outsiders' No. 2 ranked DVOA total offense going up against the Jets' 26th-ranked DVOA total defense.

I also think the oddsmakers realized they hung a bad line with the move from Tua to Teddy Bridgewater. "Teddy Covers" has put up sensational numbers vs. the spread over his career: 42-20-1 ATS in 63 starts, including 24-6 on the road.

This is arguably my favorite bet of the week, and I jumped on it early.

Browns (+3) vs. Chargers

The Chargers finally looked like the team we all expected them to be last week, but it came against the last team in the NFL without a win in the Houston Texans.

Even without Jacoby Brissett under center, the Browns present a major challenge for the Chargers based on their inability to stop the run.

Over the past two weeks, L.A. has given up 151 and 131 yards on the ground to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Texans. What's going to happen this week when they go back on the road to try and slow down Nick Chubb?

Brissett struggled last week, and as Peter Dewey broke down in his game preview for this matchup, the Browns right now aren't equipped to keep up with the Chargers in a shootout. However, Cleveland's pass rush, along with their ability to churn out long possessions with their run game poses a serious threat against a L.A. squad that remains banged up headed into Week 5.

The line has gone back and forth on the Browns side, and moved down to +2.5 on Sunday evening before going back to 3. It doesn't appear that the sharps want anything on the Chargers past this number, so if more money comes in on Cleveland, you'll be out of luck at getting them at anything better than the current number.

Follow Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.