Patriots vs. Bills Updated Odds and Prediction: What Bettors Need to Know for AFC Wild Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (#17) at the line of scrimmage against the New England Patriots.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (#17) at the line of scrimmage against the New England Patriots. / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills and the Patriots meet for the third time in seven weeks, with each team claiming a victory over the other in the prior two meetings. In what’s expected to be a chilly day in Western New York, an AFC East clash will unfold. 

Let’s start with the latest odds via WynnBET.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total


  • Patriots +4.0
  • Bills -4.0


  • Patriots +165
  • Bills -200


  • Total (Over/Under 44.0)

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Patriots last 13 games.
  • The Patriots are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 games against the Bills
  • The Bills are 13-3 straight up in their last 16 home games.
  • The Bills are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games against the Patriots.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Bills last 10 games played in January.

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

I don’t think I could be more hyped for this game. An AFC East playoff battle between Bill Belichick and the ascending superstar of Josh Allen? What’s not to love? 

From a betting perspective, we need to understand the weather. It’s going to be cold. Like, really cold. The forecast for Saturday is a bone-chilling 11 degrees with a chance of snow. We know Belichick will have his defense ready to play, and the Bills have the best pass defense in the NFL this year. 

These are a couple of teams that are good against the spread, with the Bills having a track record of struggling against the Patriots when they were led by Tom Brady. Now, with Michael McCorkle Jones making his first playoff start in freezing temperatures, I have a hard time believing that these two teams will put up a lot of points.

In their snowglobe game on December 6, Jones threw the ball only three times. Attacking a Bills defense that has been prone to struggling against the run while being absolutely dominant against the pass, I’m expecting a cold-weather game similarly scripted to that matchup.

Lean: Under 44.0