Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Bet Cubs, Phillies and Two Totals on Monday Night)
Happy Monday, baseball fans!
The BetSided team is excited to dive into the MLB action on Monday, breaking down our top picks for the night with the odds via WynnBET:
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Pick
On the surface, it appears that Chad Kuhl has the major advantage pitching in this matchup, but when you look at each of these players’ FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), it’s a much closer matchup.
JT Brubaker has a 5.50 ERA and a 4.18 FIP, which suggests that he’s been unlucky so far this season. Kuhl has a 3.86 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. I also find it interesting where Brubaker ranks in expected opponent batting average and some of his strikeouts numbers at Baseball Savant.
Even though these two teams are far from the top of the league, this may be a spot to take the UNDER between two of their better pitchers.
The Pirates’ offense should help that, as they rank 29th in runs scored and 25th in OPS so far this season.
Lean: UNDER 8.5 (-120) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
Zach Wheeler is back, baby! The 2021 National League Cy Young runner-up has been as good as any pitcher in baseball over the last month, striking out over a batter per inning and giving up only three runs in his last 26 innings. He's shut out three of the last four teams he's faced and has dominated Atlanta in recent history.
In five starts against the Braves last season, Wheeler notched a 1.62 ERA and allowed just three runs total over 22 innings in his final three outings against them. Atlanta ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers during May and things won't get easier against the 31-year-old righty.
To make matters worse for the Braves, Bryce Harper is back in the Phillies' lineup and has had a couple of games to shake off the rust. He's mashed left-handed pitchers (well, he's mashed all pitchers) this year and Tucker Davidson could be in for a rude awakening against a Philadelphia team that has the third-highest OPS against southpaws this season.
Davidson was excellent against the Brewers last week, but the Phillies with Harper are a different beast. The 26-year-old lefty had a 4.44 ERA in five AAA starts, and if you can't slow down minor league lineups then you stand no chance against Harper, Nick Castellanos and Jean Segura. Atlanta's bullpen should be fatigued as well after a competitive series with Miami, and Wheeler has shown a much greater ability to eat up innings than Davidson thus far.
The Phillies have won four of five on the road and they'll improve on that mark today. With Wheeler looking as dominant as ever and a resurgent lineup with Harper back in the fold, we're getting tremendous value on the visitors.
Pick: Phillies (-127) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Pick
It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when the Yankees are going to plate runs against this Orioles pitching staff. The Bronx Bombers have lived up to their name with the third most home runs in baseball, 57 on the year, but there are levels to this offense, posting the best wRC+ in all of baseball. Weight Runs Created + is a normalized rate of run scoring chances across ball parks, meaning that the Yankees are constantly threatening to put runs on the board.
They should be able to knock around Jordan Lyles, who is pitching better in his first season with the O's, but still struggles with walks and hard contact. In a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, I believe the MLB's best team can help push this game over the total.
Cole will make his second straight start for the Yankees against Baltimore, pitching seven innings of two-run baseball against them last week. Even two runs will be a huge addition to this low total, but Cole is not as trustworthy as one would think, posting a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) north of 3.00.
With a hitter friendly park, and the best offense I like this total below eight runs.
LEAN: OVER 7.5 (-120) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Pick
The Reds are playing like a different team this month, but that's still not enough for me to consider betting them on the moneyline.
They roll out right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez who is still in search of his first win this season. While win-loss record means all but nothing in today's game, taking a look at his overall numbers tells the story of why he's 0-for on the season. In six starts, Gutierrez has an ERA of 8.65 through 26 innings pitched. He's averaging 4.1 IP per start, striking out only 6.5 batters per nine innings, and allowing a home-run-rate of over two per nine this year. Cubs hitters Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel have hit back-to-back home runs in their last two games. Perhaps a third is in play tonight?
As for Chicago, left-hander Drew Smyly is just 1-5 this year, but the Cubs have let him down when it comes to run support. Through seven starts, Chicago has scored a total of 16 runs for Smyly, averaging 2.28 runs/game. The 32-year old lefty has a 3.97 ERA, as well as an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.00, so he's been right in line with what his peripherals suggest he should be; just without the support of Chicago's offense.
The Reds have been the better team in May, but Smyly is the far better pitcher and Chicago should capitalize against one of the worst pitchers in baseball. I'll back the Cubs to get the job done on the moneyline tonight.
LEAN: Cubs -115 -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE