3 MLB teams that will exceed expectations in 2024, and 2 that will disappoint

The Tampa Bay Rays are still dangerous 

Every year, it seems miraculous that the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball. 2024 should be no different, even with star shortstop Wander Franco seemingly set to never step foot on an MLB field again and Tyler Glasnow now donning Dodger blue. 

Tampa Bay’s biggest flaw right now is its starting pitcher. Beyond trading Glasnow, Shane McClanahan and Jeffery Spring are each recovering from Tommy John surgery while Drew Rasmussen and Taj Bradley are nursing injuries of their own.

Yet, Zach Eflin established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League in his first season with the Rays while Aaron Civale provides solid stability behind him. Though there are question marks — at least to begin the season — from there as Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Tyler Alexander project to open the season in the rotation. 

Pepiot, acquired in the Glasnow trade, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation. After pitching to a 2.14 ERA across 42.0 2023 innings, Pepiot seems likely to regress closer to a 4.0 ERA according to projection systems ZiPS and ATC. But, this is a young Rays pitcher we’re talking about. Based on how they’ve developed pitchers over the last five years, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pepiot become a valuable piece of Tampa Bay’s rotation.

In the bullpen, the Rays are as good as ever with their late-inning pairing of Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam. Additionally, Colin Poche, Phil Maton, Garrett Cleavinger and Sean Armstrong should provide valuable innings too. 

What will make or break the Rays’ season is likely their lineup, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Quietly, Yandy Diaz has become one of the most underrated players in baseball while Randy Aronzarena had loudly turned into one of MLB’s best left fielders. Additionally, across two seasons since being traded to Tampa Bay, Isaac Parades has hit for a 128 wRC+.

Brandon Lowe, who has been hampered by injuries over the last couple of seasons, is one of my favorite second basemen in baseball. When right and healthy, Lowe, as seen in 2021, can be one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters in the league. 

Beyond those four, expect recently acquired Richie Palacios to build off his small sample-size success from last season, Jonathan Aranda to take a step forward, rookie Junior Caminero to see significant action come the summer, Jose Siri to continue his flashy center field play and the Rays’ platoons to continue causing havoc.

Projected to win just 84.5 games by DraftKings, the Rays are being disrespected and should continue to be a pest among the top of the AL East standings.