3 reasons Braves can win the World Series, 1 reason they won’t

Braves bane will be pitching, if anything

A caveat: I do think the Braves are winning the World Series. But if I'm, for the sake of argument, pulling out something they might struggle with, or a reason they would fall out of contention, it would be their starting pitching.

Looking at the ERAs of teams in medium and high-leverage situations, the Braves are bested by several playoff teams: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and importantly, the Dodgers.

There's reason to be optimistic that it could be OK, though. Against solely the projected field of playoff teams, the Braves have the fourth-best ERA of any MLB team. The only playoff teams better are the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, both on the opposite side of the bracket.

If Max Fried can keep healthy, all should be OK here. Fried has a 4.10 ERA in medium/high leverage situations, far better than Spencer Strider's 4.92 and Charlie Morton's 5.24. The only concern might be Fried's limited batters faced in such situations, with 164, whereas Strider and Morton have both faced above 385.

For comparison, though, the Dodgers aren't much better. Clayton Kershaw has a 3.39 ERA against batters in medium/high leverage situations, but Bobby Miller is at 5.34, and Lance Lynn is also a ghastly 5.84.

The Dodgers appear to be positioned to utilize openers, perhaps a tactic the Braves could also give a go at.

It seems, for both the Dodgers and the Braves, it might come down to the pitching. As it so often does in the postseason. If you can hit, you can win. The Braves can.