Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 13

4. Oregon Ducks

Opponent: 13 Oregon State | Time: Friday, Nov. 24, 8:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ORE -13.5

Everyone seems convinced that Oregon's loss to Washington at Husky Stadium earlier in the year, the only blemish on the Ducks' record this season to this point, was nothing more than an outlier. Lookahead lines have Dan Lanning's team favored in a possible rematch with the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game by more than a touchdown.

And yet, I'm not sure why we're convinced that this Oregon team is that good. To be clear, they are obviously quite good. Bo Nix operates this offense like a machine with some elite weapons around him like Troy Franklin and Bucky Irving. Furthermore, that's one of the best offensive lines in the country and the defense, particularly against the pass, has been tremendous as well.

Look who it's been against, though. Oregon has not registered a win over a team currently ranked inside the latest CFP Top 25 rankings this season. The Ducks' best win came against Utah, who just dropped outside of the Top 25 following its fourth loss of the year. Washington was the only ranked foe they've faced then, and they lost.

Now they welcome an Oregon State team to Eugene on Saturday for this heated in-state rivalry. Not having to go to Corvallis is a big win for the Ducks, sure. However, the 13th-ranked Beavers are quite clearly the second-best team that Oregon will have seen this year.

More importantly, the one area where we've seen Oregon show some warning signs defensively has been in the run game, which is Oregon State's bread and butter between an elite O-line with Damien Martinez running behind it. If the Beavers can control this game on the ground and step up defensively as they did last week (albeit in rainy conditions) against Washington, Jonathan Smith's team can pull off the upset.