March Madness bracket predictions 2024: Picks for every game, Final Four and more
March Madness bracket predictions: Sweet 16 picks
1 UConn vs. 4 Auburn (East Region)
Get your popcorn ready for this showdown with two advanced metrics darlings, and for good reason. Auburn has the defensive prowess to slow down UConn at times, but the Huskies can give that right back when they’re locking down. Ultimately, I come down to the fact that the Tigers struggled against Quad 1 opponents this season while UConn took on all challengers. Believe teams when they show you who they are, and the Huskies have the advantage there.
Pick: UConn advances
3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State (East Region)
Illinois just looks the part of the team we see every NCAA Tournament that’s peaking and hitting on all the right cylinders. Iowa State is exceptionally good, no question, but their offense is far more limited than the upside of the Fighting Illini, particularly with Terrence Shannon playing at the level he currently is. The Illini will be able to apply enough pressure to force the Cyclones out of their game plan and ultimately get Illinois to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Illinois advances
1 North Carolina vs. 4 Alabama (West Region)
North Carolina certainly doesn’t play as fast as Alabama, but the Heels are still a Top 50 team in terms of pace in the country. But most notably, UNC also does this while actually being better defensively than they have been offensively, where they’re still a Top 25 team. Bama’s defensive inefficiencies will come to haunt them in this matchup as the Tar Heels can both slow them down a bit scoring but also score quite well on their own.
Pick: North Carolina advances
11 New Mexico vs. 2 Arizona (West Region)
The buck stops here for the Lobos. Part of the reason that I have New Mexico in the Sweet 16 is the problems their pace and attacking mindset can cause certain teams. However, Arizona is not a team that’s going to be adversely affected by that as they also run at a Top 20 tempo on the season but do so with even better two-way efficiency. Add in the talent advantage, and the Wildcats will smash Cinderella’s slipper.
Pick: Arizona advances
1 Houston vs. 12 James Madison (South Region)
Another Sweet 16 game, another Cinderella run ended. The experience and talent of Houston are going to be tough for any team to match up against, but especially a James Madison team that’s going to, by design, try to press and push the pace. The Cougars are better at controlling tempo first of all, but also have the defense to simply force too many mistakes from the Dukes to cruise to another victory.
Pick: Houston advances
3 Kentucky vs. 10 Colorado (South Region)
Make no mistake, Kentucky is as dangerous as any team in the field. But Colorado should have plenty of momentum by this point and looks the part of a team finally realizing its potential. More importantly, though, the Wildcats’ issues both defensively and, at times, on the glass are big problems against the Buffaloes. I expect this one will be tight, but the Buffs will be a double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.
Pick: Colorado advances
1 Purdue vs. 12 McNeese State (Midwest Region)
Purdue fans will most likely be on pins and needles for this game given McNeese’s quality and coaching. Moreover, the Cowboys could give the Boilermakers a push with their ability to keep up with the 3-ball. But at the end of the day, Will Wade’s team lacks a bit in the size department and Zach Edey should just simply dominate the action on the interior to the point that McNeese gets a little too far behind and can’t catch back up.
Pick: Purdue advances
3 Creighton vs. 2 Tennessee (Midwest Region)
For as dominant as Tennessee’s defense can be, the truth of the matter is simply that they can also be ineffective offensively on the flip side of that. More importantly, Creighton’s greatest strength is how versatile they can be with their offense. I believe the Bluejays balance offensively and with a sneaky good defense will push the Vols D and make it difficult for Rick Barnes’ team to keep up, ultimately having the team fall short.
Pick: Creighton advances