MLB Insider: Why the Yankees are optimistic Aaron Judge will breakout soon

The early season struggles of Aaron Judge made many wonder what was plaguing the New York Yankees’ superstar slugger.

After a loss on Thursday to the Oakland Athletics, Judge was hitting .186 with four home runs and a .693 OPS. He resembled little of the dominant slugger that had earned a nine-year, $360 million contract only a year earlier. And after striking out four times against the Tampa Bay Rays, he was booed by the fans at Yankee Stadium.

But there are signs that Judge is beginning to break out of his slump. In the last week, he’s hitting .296/.424/.667 with a 1.091 OPS, three home runs and seven RBI. And in his last two games, he’s hitting 5-for-8 with two home runs and five RBI.

That hardly means that Judge is back. But both Judge and the Yankees are encouraged after the most recent series against the Milwaukee Brewers. There is optimism that the last two games are a sign of things to come, while people familiar with the situation insist that he is healthy and that the spring training abdominal injury is behind him.

“For the most part, I like where he’s at,” hitting coach James Rowson told ESPN. “I like the way he’s been working lately. And I feel like, you know, we’re gonna see Aaron Judge be Aaron Judge here pretty soon. So I’m not that concerned.”

Numbers back up Yankees optimism over Aaron Judge

A look at the underlying numbers would seem to confirm that. This season, Judge ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity. He ranks in the 96th percentile in walk rate (16.5). He ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate (54.1) and in the 87th percentile in barrel percentage (13.5). What’s plaguing him, however, is his strikeout percentage (27.1) that ranks in the 24th percentile and his whiff percentage (32.3) that ranks in the 15th percentile.

Judge, 32, also has a career-low batting average on balls in play (.250) that is bound to improve. In the last three seasons, his batting average on balls in play has been .300, .340, and .332.

So yes, while Judge has struggled to start the season, the underlying numbers and recent performance against the Brewers suggest that a breakout is on the horizon. And despite his poor start to the season, the Yankees are 19-11 and in second place in the division – which should give the franchise increased optimism moving forward.