Which surprise NBA contender is for real?
Are the Oklahoma City Thunder championship contenders?
The Oklahoma City Thunder check just about every box you look for in a contender. They have the second-best net rating in the league, a top-10 offense and defense, a superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a strong supporting cast. Throw in their 31-13 record and better underlying metrics than the Timberwolves, and the Thunder are well-positioned to secure the one seed. The best way to win championships is to be excellent and give yourself the easiest road possible.
The Thunder’s offensive rating of 121.1 is third in the league and only 0.4 points behind the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers for first. They have an elite effective field goal percentage (57.8 percent, third), rarely turn the ball over (11.3 percent, seventh), and are above average at getting points at the free-throw line (.212 FT/FGA, 11th). Their only weakness is their 28th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage of 21 percent.
This is an explosive offense, and it’s led by one of the game’s best players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 25-year-old Canadian is averaging 31.1 points per game on above-league-average efficiency, and Joel Embiid is the only player with a greater than 30 percent usage rate and better true shooting percentage than his 64.9 percent. The Thunder’s offense is a well-oiled machine, but Gilgeous-Alexander is the offensive superstar who can carry the load when things stop clicking.
The only concern about the Thunder’s offense is whether or not they can continue to be the best jump-shooting team in the league. They’re second in 3-point field goal percentage, 10th in efficiency on long twos, and first in efficiency on shots 10 to 16 feet from the basket. The Thunder’s offense isn’t facing imminent doom if their jump shooting drifts down, but this offense has more signs of downside than upside.
Defensively, the Thunder are elite at contesting shots and forcing turnovers but are a putrid defensive rebounding team and send too many guys to the free throw line. In the playoffs, free throw rates generally increase, which makes fouling a particularly costly deficiency. Their rebounding issues are also a concern, but it’s an easier problem to solve mid-season than a penchant for fouling.
It’s unavoidable, but this will become a major storyline and talking point as the playoffs approach. This season, the Thunder are the youngest team in the league, with an average age of 23.1, and would be the youngest in history to win a title. Should they be docked points for being young? Probably not, but it can be viewed as a tiebreaker.
All the statistical indicators suggest that the Thunder need to be taken seriously, but there are a few warning signs that their charmed first half might not be completely real. Even if they see some negative regression, they’ll still finish the season with some of the best underlying metrics. Almost every champion has lost in the playoffs before they claim the title, and expecting the Thunder to buck history seems to be a bridge too far. The Thunder aren’t an inner-circle contender just yet, but they’re knocking at the door.