There's a new World Series favorite after Braves Game 1 loss to Phillies
By Josh Wilson
There is plenty to love about the MLB featuring short series in the first two rounds of the postseason. A best-of-three Wild Card Round and best-of-five Divisional Round means every game is even more important than it would be if it were a best-of-seven arrangement.
It creates plenty of opportunity for underdog teams to completely flip the scrip on teams who have stacked together dominant regular seasons in a moment's notice. In an instant, the work a team did for months can be undone and be made vulnerable.
Such is the case for the Atlanta Braves, who have lost home field advantage and surrendered it to the team that has the most fearsome home fans in the postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Atlanta failed to score in Game 1, losing 3-0 to the Phillies. With that, their chances of winning the divisional series greatly diminish, and they are officially no longer the statistical favorite to hoist the World Series trophy at the end of the year.
Braves are no longer World Series favorite
Based on FanGraphs' model, here's how things stand in terms of World Series win likelihood after Saturday's games:
Team | World Series odds after Saturday | World Series odds before Saturday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros | 23% | 17.4% | +5.6% |
Atlanta Braves | 18.5% | 27.3% | -8.8% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5% | 11.6% | +6.9% |
Texas Rangers | 12.2% | 8.4% | +3.8% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.1% | 13.6% | -4.5% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 9% | 13.9% | -4.9% |
Minnesota Twins | 5.8% | 9.8% | -4% |
Baltimore Orioles | 3.7% | 5.8% | -2.1% |
The Braves, interestingly enough, have equal odds as the Phillies to win it all, even though the trail substantially behind Philly in winning the LDS and LCS after the Game 1 loss. Philly increased its World Series chances by an astonishing 6.9 percent with just one win on Saturday.
The big story here, though, is the Astros taking the lead as the most likely team to win the World Series with a 23 percent chance of doing so.
Unsurprisingly the Rangers, the other team to secure a Game 1 lead in the American League, have the second-best odds in the AL to win it all.
Clearly, whoever comes out of Phillies-Braves should be tabbed as the favorite in the National League.
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