Alabama given 23 percent chance to win SEC

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Alabama has a 23 percent chance of winning the SEC this season. Alabama has won three national championships in the last seven years and leads the SEC in conference titles with 23. The second most SEC titles is 13, held by Tennessee.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts and ranks team strength based on expected points added from offense, defense and special teams, adjusted for opponent strength. Using preseason FPI, ESPN Stats & Information has projected each team’s chances of winning each game on its schedule based on the difference between the two teams’ FPIs, game site and game type.

Alabama ranks second in FPI with the 10th-ranked offense and third-ranked defense. They only fall short to Florida State that has the second-ranked offense and first-ranked defense. Among teams in the SEC, Alabama ranks first in defense FPI and fourth in offense FPI.

While Alabama shows the best chance to win the SEC, South Carolina appears in second with an 18 percent chance. Then Georgia with a 17 percent chance and Auburn with a 16 percent chance. Auburn is shown to have the fourth best chance despite being fifth overall in FPI with the third-ranked offense and 19th-ranked defense. South Carolina has the eighth-ranked offense and 18th-ranked defense and Georgia has the 15th-ranked defense and seventh-ranked offense.

Alabama may have the best chance, but they still have one of the toughest schedules in football. They start off with West Virginia and then go on to play Florida, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Tennessee, at LSU and Auburn among other tough match-ups.