The Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 at the Georgia Dome. Here are the odds and trends to keep in mind for this NFC South game.
The Atlanta Falcons will play their final home opener at the Georgia Dome on Sunday, September 11th at 1:00 PM ET. Atlanta will move next door to brand-new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017, but have an interesting Week 1 matchup in 2016 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta enters its matchup with Tampa Bay as a three-point home favorite, according to OddsShark.com. The money line is Atlanta -155, Tampa Bay +135. This Week 1 matchup has an over/under of 47.5 points.
To open the 2016 NFL season between competitive division rivals, a three-point spread in favor of the home team Atlanta seems about right. Las Vegas anticipates a close game with both teams scoring in the low 20s.
With the devastating season-ending injury to Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings, this leaves a wide-open second NFC Wild Card spot that either Atlanta or Tampa Bay can claim. Atlanta finished 8-8 under first year head coach Dan Quinn in 2015. Tampa Bay went 6-10 under former head coach Lovie Smith last season.
To be transparent, this could be seen as a game to stay away from in Week 1 in terms of betting. A slight lean towards Atlanta at -3 might be the play, as the Falcons are the home team with superior special teams play. Buccaneers rookie kicker Roberto Aguayo might struggle in his first NFL game. He has been a major disappointment in the preseason for Tampa Bay.
The over/under is about where it needs to be. It might be best to play the under in this one. The last three games between the Falcons and the Buccaneers have been a combined 44 points or under. This could be a logical play when looking at the 47.5 over/under.
As for trends in this NFC South rivalry, Tampa Bay swept Atlanta last season. In the last 10 games in this biannual rivalry, it is all tied up at five games apiece. Tampa Bay has not defeated Atlanta three straight times since the 2007-08 NFL seasons.
Perhaps the most interesting trend to keep an eye on in this game is that the Falcons have won their home opener every season since 2008. Atlanta has won every home opener of the Matt Ryan era (2008-present). Its last loss home opener loss came to the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, 27-20.
Next: 2016 NFL season: Record predictions for all 32 teams
Conversely, Tampa Bay has lost its last three Week 1 games. The Buccaneers’ last Week 1 victory came against the Carolina Panthers at home in 2012, 16-10.