Nylon Calculus: Miami Heat find success by spreading the wealth on offense
By Nick Sciria
Although the Miami Heat currently rank No. 16 in offensive efficiency, the team’s offensive production over the past few months has been quite an accomplishment. Despite Dion Waiters missing the past nine games and 32 games overall this season, Goran Dragic and company have found success, ranking sixth in offense since Feb. 1.
From an offensive standpoint, the Heat’s personnel doesn’t jump off the page. To counteract their lack of a superstar focal point, Dragic spearheads an attack that includes several secondary playmakers around him. Currently, the Heat boast the highest pass percentage on drives at 37.6 percent, thanks in large part to Dragic. Miami’s starting point guard has totaled a whopping 12.1 drives per game this season (third in the league), and he’s currently sixth in pass percentage for players with at least 300 drives. Because Dragic is so willing to draw defenders and then kick the ball to open teammates, he currently ranks 27th in the league in potential assists + free throw assists + secondary assists per 36 minutes (for players who sit above the median in terms of minutes played this season).
But the value of Dragic’s playmaking goes beyond the sheer quantity of assists that he has generated this season. When adjusting for his on-court minutes the teammates that he has played alongside for at least 1000 possessions this season, an undeniable trend appears. Despite a variety of player skill sets around him (including a stretch four, a center who likes to post up and a spot-up shooter among others), Dragic hasn’t played favorites.
Given Dragic’s equitable assist distribution along with Miami’s roster construction, it’s not surprising that the Heat’s individual usage percentages are fairly spread out as well. Only six teams (the Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks) have a smaller variance in their distribution of individual usage percentages (considering the players who have played more than the median amount of minutes this season).
On one end of the spectrum, the Nuggets have taken this methodology to the extreme, surrounding a gifted maestro in Nikola Jokic with an array of formidable complimentary pieces. On the other end, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder all feature at least one elite perimeter shot creator who is able to jumpstart the offense on their own
But the success of Miami’s role players doesn’t end with scoring and usage. James Johnson (52nd), Dion Waiters (55th), Tyler Johnson (72nd) and Josh Richardson (94th) all rank in the top 100 in potential assists + free throw assists + secondary assists per 36 minutes among qualified players, and all four players are averaging a career high in assists per 36 minutes this season. Only two teams (the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets) have a higher number of players in the top 100, a feat that helps put Dragic’s subdued per-game assist numbers into context as well.
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Ultimately, Miami’s accumulation of offensive wildcards has slowly developed into an abundance of offensive weapons over the course of this season. The Heat’s low variance in terms of usage doesn’t necessarily demonstrate a lack of scoring punch (as is probably the case with teams like the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers), but it is more indicative of a plethora of players on the roster who are all comfortable attacking, scoring and distributing. Given this spread, it’s nearly impossible for the defense to key in on any particular player, paving the way for a much needed competitive advantage in Miami this season.
Sources: NBA.com/Stats, nbawowy.com, Basketball-Reference.com