Mark Teixeira: What Injury Does to 1B’s Fantasy Value

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

A rough offseason for the Yankees just got rougher, as it was announced that first baseman Mark Teixeira will be out until at least May with a wrist injury. Teixeira joins Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez as Yankees who will miss significant regular season time, with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera both returning from season-ending injuries in 2012.

What does this mean for Teixeira and his fantasy value? First, let’s take a look at our initial Draft Kit projections.

Obviously, missing the first month of the season is going to hurt his counted stats. With a wrist injury, you also have to ask how quickly he’ll be back to form once he returns to the field. Most of Teixeira’s fantasy value since 2009 has been based on his power numbers, as he’s been a .252 hitter since that time. Teixeira has still been a great OBP guy, which has helped his runs scored in that time and his value as a real player, but this goes a long way in hurting his fantasy value, even beyond the missed games.

The fact of the matter is that even before this injury came out, we had Teixeira ranked as our 12th best fantasy first baseman. If you’re in a league that factors OBP, his ranking is probably a bit higher, but not much, maybe Top-10.

With Miguel Cabrera moving to third, Adrian Gonzalez losing his pop, and a few other stalwarts on the decline, the first base position isn’t as strong as it’s been in the past, but it’s still way too deep of a position to gamble on a guy who’s going to miss at least a month of the season who will struggle to be at .250 when he’s on the field.

If you’re looking for a specific name to replace Teixeira, I’d direct you to Ryan Howard. Howard’s an example of a player who’s on the decline and has been a little overrated in the past, which is scaring people off, thus making him underrated heading into this year. Howard’s like Teixeria in a lot of ways, in that he probably won’t top .260 in a season. But his power numbers are still some of the best in the game, and that’s what you’re looking for from the first base position if you can’t get one of the elite ones (Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder).

Back to Teixeira, the only way I’d even look at him in the draft this year is if you’re in a league with either a very deep bench, or at least two DL spots. Make no mistake, someone will draft him. That person just should not be you. Go with an old vet like Howard or Justin Morneau, or a youngster on the rise like Eric Hosmer, Chris Davis, or Ike Davis.