Fantasy First Base Profile: Freddie Freeman

Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

There are players that are underrated and there are players that are overrated. Then, there is Freddie Freeman.

He is in a category all to himself. He is by far the best “very good” first baseman in baseball. He is not in the great category of Miguel Cabrera or has the upside of Paul Goldschmidt. In my opinion he is not someone you think of as an emerging player who could be one of the top hitting first basemen in the game. His career statistics bear this out.

There are many of you out there who think he will begin to hit 30+ homeruns a year and continue to hit above .300. His career numbers so far in his young career do not show a large upside in power or the ability to maintain the .319 average that he posted this season.

The Power

Freddie Freeman without a doubt has a good power stroke but his power is very limited as far as upside potential goes. Yes, he hit 23 homeruns this year, which equals his career high from 2011. At 24 years old he is very close to reaching his ceiling as far as power goes.

Most of you will say that his power isn’t fully developed yet and he will mature into a 30+ homerun hitter. His ISO this season was .181, which incidentally equals his ISO for his career.

Hitters who have league leading homerun capability have ISO’s north of .300. Players who average more than 30 homeruns a season have ISO’s above .230 Freddie Freeman has never come close to these numbers in Atlanta or in the minor leagues.

His power ceiling should be around 28 homeruns for a career high based on his career ISO average. Can an ISO improve? Sure, but not in a drastic way where a player who once hit 23 homeruns a year is now hitting 40. Unless there are some banned substances involved and then that is a completely different story.

The Average

Anytime a first baseman can hit .319 like Freddie Freeman did this season there will always be a top-level draft position reserved for him. His .319 average from this season is not sustainable.

He had a career high .371 BABIP this season. The only other time he got close to that number was in AAA in 2010 where he posted a .351 BABIP. He hit .319 that season also. When you have a BABIP north of .350 you are getting some lucky breaks along the way. Of course there may be a season where he approaches .319 again.

I don’t see him repeating it as soon as next season. He is more likely to hit something close to .290 next season based on his career average of .285.

RBI Production

Freddie Freeman’s RBI production was not a sign of things to come for next season. When you are hitting third in a lineup with a healthy Jason Heyward and Justin Upton hitting in front of you, there are plenty of RBI opportunities. His BABIP and RISP numbers were career highs. This led him to an RBI total that far exceeds his previous career highs.

Don’t get use to seeing 100+ RBI season’s every year from him. His career high BABIP along with his scorching .443 average with runners in scoring position is completely unrealistic going forward.

To put this in perspective Miguel Cabrera hit 46 points lower than Freddie Freeman with RISP at .397. Miguel Cabrera had 137 RBI’s. Freddie Freeman had 109 RBI’s even though he had a much higher success rate while hitting with runners in scoring position.

I feel that his career high 109 RBI’s could stand as his ceiling as he goes forward in his career. Here is another case where you won’t see him approach 100 RBI’s next season.

Conclusion

Freddie Freeman is going to be vastly overrated in drafts next season. Fantasy players will see his RBI totals and his great batting average and fall all over themselves to draft him. Don’t fall into the Freddie Freeman trap. There will be first baseman with better value on the board after he is chosen.

Obviously, don’t completely ignore him. If he falls a couple of rounds below his average draft position you would want to consider picking him up based on draft value.

In the majority of drafts he will be chosen well above where he should be drafted. This will create a situation where you will want to stay away and try to find value somewhere else.