NFL week 16 preview and predictions

The Armchair Quarterback’s Week 16 Predictions

Week 15 ended up being a solid week for my predictions, going 10-6. That brings the overall record on the season to 148-76. At this point, my goal of 70% is probably going to come up just a little short. My new goal is simply beating other so called “experts” from the national sites. I’ll have some final standings after the regular season ends, but let’s just say guys like Pete Prisco and Mike Florio are going down. Now on to the picks……

Dolphins at Bills

The Dolphins were a team that I just couldn’t believe in early on in the season. However, the combination of Tannehill’s improvement and their ability to not let the bullying scandal ruin their season has impressed me just as much as their win over the Patriots last week. While I think the Bills are a tougher team than their record indicates, I think the Dolphins just have more to play for and will pull out a hard fought victory here.

Dolphins 20
Bills 17

Saints at Panthers

This is a tough one to pick and probably the game I am most looking forward to watching this weekend. While the Saints handled the Panthers relatively easily in New Orleans a few weeks back, they are just a different team on the road. In fact, the Saints are just 3-4 on the road this season. The last two physical teams they played on the road were the Seahawks and the Rams and they lost both of those games. So it sounds like I should pick the Panthers here, but I just can’t do it. The fact that the Saints got pushed around last week will work against Carolina here. I just think that with the division and a first round bye on the line that Sean Payton and Drew Brees will come through in the clutch. I’ll take the QB/coach combo that has been there and done that in such a big game.

Saints 24
Panthers 23

Vikings at Bengals

This game will say a LOT about how tough the Bengals are mentally. Last week, with a chance at a first round bye on the line the Bengals got punched in the mouth on national television by the Steelers. Now the upstart Vikings come to town having gone 3-2-1 in their last six games. The Bengals have the more talented roster, have infinitely more to play for, and are at home. This makes them the easy pick here. So why am I so nervous about this pick?

Vikings 23
Bengals 27

Broncos at Texans

Let’s cut to the chase. I’m picking the Broncos. It’s really a no brainer when you have a QB having arguably the best season of all time going against the team with the worst record in the NFL. (Denver fans just stop reading now and skip ahead to the next game.) The Texans have cost me more wrong picks this season than any other team as I kept picking them to pull it together and win some games eventually. So, as I see it, the Texans owe me. The KC fan in me is willing to get this pick wrong in order for my Chiefs to get home field advantage. So come on Texans, for one game be the team that everyone believed you to be before the season began. This is your Super Bowl. Make it happen!

Broncos 36
Texans 27

Titans at Jaguars

There for a few glorious weeks it looked like the Jaguars had become a good team. Now, I give them credit, they have shown a ton of fight for a team that looked down right awful early in the year. That having been said, good teams don’t lose at home to the Bills (sorry Buffalo). The Jaguars have shown enough fight that the coaches all deserve to stick around, but I think the Titans are just the better team here. I’m betting that Kendall Wright has a big day in this one.

Titans 27
Jaguars 20

Colts at Chiefs

(Homer Alert) The Chiefs have outscored their opponents 101-41 over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Colts haven’t topped 30 points since Reggie Wayne went down and have lost their last two road games by a combined score of 39-82. Two weeks ago the Colts gave up 148 total yards to Gio Bernard on 16 touches (9.25 yards per touch) and now they get the explosive Jamaal Charles who has been on absolute fire lately. Charles has averaged 162.5 total yards per game with 10 TDs over his past four games. I think KC wins a high scoring game that will likely be a preview of a playoff matchup in a couple of weeks.

Colts 34
Chiefs 37

Cowboys at Redskins

Could there be two more dysfunctional teams in the NFL? The Redskins pretty much imploded weeks ago, and now the Cowboys are doing their best to top them. The collapse against the Packers was inexcusable. You have to think that Dallas has enough talent on their roster to rebound and beat the floundering Redskins. That having been said, you would have thought that they’d be able to beat the Matt Flynn lead Packers in Dallas, especially with a 20+ point lead at halftime. I’m picking the Cowboys, but I don’t like it.

Cowboys 30
Redskins 27

Browns at Jets

No offense to Cleveland and New York fans, but you couldn’t pay me to watch this game. This has low scoring and ugly written all over it. I actually don’t like how this game matches up for the Jets at all. Cleveland has a stout defense and if the Jets can’t run the ball and have to trust the game to Geno Smith I think the Browns secondary will make them regret it. I’ll take the Browns in an ugly road win.

Browns 16
Jets 13

Buccaneers at Rams

The Rams are a hard team to get a read on. Every time I think I have them figured out their next game goes exactly the opposite of how I think it should. Since their bye week the Rams are 2-0 at home, beating the Bears and Saints by a combined 69-37. Despite the fact that Tampa Bay has been playing tough down the stretch, I think you have to take the Rams here.

Buccaneers 20
Rams 23

Cardinals at Seahawks

The Seahawks have won all six of their home games this season by the combined score of 196-84. That’s an average score of about 33-14. The Cardinals have definitely impressed this season, but I just can’t see picking against Seattle at home. They’re still my pick to win it all this year.

Cardinals 17
Seahawks 27

Giants at Lions

If the Lions lose this game Jim Schwartz should be fired immediately following the game. The Lions had their division gift wrapped for them when both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler went down with injuries. How did Detroit respond? They’ve lost four out of their last five games. The Giants appeared to have given up on Tom Coughlin last week in Seattle. If Detroit allows them to come into their home and beat them with the division on the line then there is no hope in the motor city. I’m picking the Lions because they have more talent, more to play for, and are at home, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they managed to give this one away too.

Giants 27
Detroit 31

Patriots at Ravens

Other than New Orleans vs. Carolina, there may not be a better game to watch this week than this one. Both teams have a ton to play for. The Patriots are coming off a painful loss to Miami and the Ravens kicked their way to a crucial win over Detroit. Much like I did in the Saints/Panthers game, I’m going with the coach/QB combo that I trust the most. In this case it’s Mr. Bundchen and Darth Hoodie.

Patriots 24
Ravens 23

Raiders at Chargers

The Raiders allowed Alex Smith to throw for 5 TDs against them in Oakland last week. Now they have to face a red hot Phillip Rivers on the road. Ruh Roh Raggy!

Raiders 27
Chargers 41

Steelers at Packers

Despite the Packers miracle win keeping them in the playoff hunt, I still don’t think the Pack will rush Aaron Rodgers back this week. So despite Matt Flynn’s performance against an awful Dallas defense, I think the Packers may struggle to keep up with the Steelers here. Over his last five games Big Ben has 12 TDs and only 1 interception. I’ll take the Steelers on the road here.

Steelers 27
Packers 23

Bears at Eagles

If you like watching offensive football make sure you tune in for this one. This game matches up two of the best offenses in football with two of the worst defenses. Ultimately, the Bears miserable run defense will probably catch up with them here as they face arguably the best running back in football this season, LeSean McCoy. Look for both teams to put up monster numbers, but the Eagles pull out the close game at home.

Bears 38
Eagles 41

Falcons at 49ers

I’m sure before the season the MNF people thought they had a great late season game here between two of the best teams in the NFC. Problem is, the Falcons are actually one of the worst teams in football this season and now have to go on the road to face a physically dominant 49ers team that is still fighting for their playoff spot. This one could be over at halftime.

Falcons 17
49ers 30

Now on to the Armchair Quarterback odds and ends of the week……..