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The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL Playoffs

By Lyle Graversen

Oct 7, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shakes hands with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) following the game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Broncos 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shakes hands with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) following the game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Broncos 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Armchair Quarterback’s Conference Championship Predictions

Dec 8, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) talks with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) after the game at Candlestick Park. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 8, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) talks with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) after the game at Candlestick Park. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports /

After a mediocre 2-2 record in the wild card round, things went better in the divisional round as last week’s picks were a perfect 4-0. Granted, I didn’t exactly go out on any limbs by picking arguably the four best teams in the NFL to win, but I’ll take it anyway. Since there are only two games this week I’ll give you a little more statistical breakdown along with my picks for the two games. Before we get to it, let me just say that I don’t have a strong feeling about either of these games, so if I pick against your team, don’t take it personally. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these teams in the Super Bowl.

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Anything less than an epic showdown between the two greatest quarterbacks of this generation will be a disappointment here. History says that the smart bet is to take Brady over Manning in the playoffs, but there is no denying that Manning’s supporting cast (at least on offense) is vastly superior to the players that Brady is working with. Then again, Bill Belichick has been a master of finding ways to design a winning plan for the pieces that he has. Here’s a look at how these teams match up statistically.

When Denver throws the ball:

Den Pass Offense: 340 yards/game, 68.3%, 8.3 YPA, 55 TDs, 10 INTs
NE Pass Defense: 239 yards/game, 57.0%, 7.0 YPA, 25 TDs, 17 INTs

When Denver runs the ball:

Den Run Offense: 117 yards/game, 4.1 YPC, 16 TDs
NE Run Defense: 134 yards/game, 4.5 YPC, 11 TDs

When NE throws the ball:

NE Pass Offense: 255 yards/game, 60.5%, 6.9 YPA, 25 TDs, 11 INTs
Den Pass Defense: 254 yards/game, 58.2%, 7.1 YPA, 29 TDs, 17 INTs

When NE runs the ball:

NE Run Offense: 129 yards/game, 4.4 YPC, 19 TDs
Den Run Defense: 102 yards/game, 3.9 YPC, 15 TDs

The biggest matchup of this game in my opinion is if NE can keep the Denver passing game in check. In NE’s come from behind win in Foxboro the Broncos only passed for 150 yards and turned the ball over 4 times (3 times on fumbles). When you look at those numbers its amazing they only lost by an overtime FG. The Denver offense ran the ball great, but because of Manning’s performance people started bringing up the “Peyton can’t play outside in the cold” argument. The current forecasted high for this Sunday in Denver is 54 degrees. With Manning at home and the weather not appearing to be a factor, I think its safe to expect more than 150 yards passing this time around. However, I do think that Denver may be able to carry over some of their success running the ball from the first matchup.

It will be interesting to see how NE attacks the Denver defense. Lately, they’ve been a run first team, but the weakness of the Denver defense (especially with Chris Harris now out) is their pass defense. It would make sense for Denver to have a relatively low rushing yards/game allowed number on defense when teams have always been passing to play keep up with their prolific offense. However, it’s not just that, the Denver defense is tied for 7th in the NFL for yards per carry allowed. For me, the bottom line is that I think Denver is going to put up points this week and despite the brilliance of Brady and Belichick, I don’t think NE has the offensive firepower to win this shootout. It scares and pains me to do it, but I’m taking Peyton Manning and the Broncos here. Actually, I’m not so much taking Manning over Brady, but Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas over guys like Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Austin Collie, and Michael Hoomanawanui. To me, that’s the difference in this game.

Patriots 30
Broncos 34

NFC Championship: 49ers at Seahawks

If you are a fan of physical smash mouth football, this could be the game of the decade in that style. The fact that these two teams are arguably the two most complete teams, play in the same division, have coaches who’s hatred for each other dates back to their college coaching days, both have up and coming young stars at QB, and are now playing for the third time to settle all just make this game epic. The 49ers won a closely contested slug fest in San Francisco about a month ago, but earlier in the season the Seahawks put a thorough beat down on the 49ers in Seattle. Before I get to my official prediction, let’s see how they match up.

When SF throws the ball:

SF Pass Offense: 186 yards/game, 58.5%, 7.7 YPA, 21 TDs, 8 INTs
Seattle Pass Defense: 172 yards/game, 59.0%, 5.8 YPA, 16 TDs, 28 INTs

When SF runs the ball:

SF Run Offense: 138 yards/game, 4.4 YPC, 18 TDs
Seattle Run Defense: 102 yards/game, 3.9 YPC, 4 TDs

When Seattle throws the ball:

Seattle Pass Offense: 202 yards/game, 63.6%, 8.4 YPA, 27 TDs, 9 INTs
SF Pass Defense: 221 yards/game, 59.0%, 6.5 YPA, 19 TDs, 18 INTs

When Seattle runs the ball:

Seattle Run Offense: 137 yards/game, 4.3 YPC, 14 TDs
SF Run Defense: 96 yards/game, 3.9 YPC, 11 TDs

My initial thought was that there was no way I could pick against the Seahawks at home. I stated weeks ago that I thought Seattle was the best team in football and declared them my Super Bowl winning pick. While that could certainly happen, I’m starting to come around to the 49ers. I think you can throw the previous games out the window for this one. The bottom line for me is despite the Niners having to face the mighty Seattle defense, I think the 49ers are better equipped to score points in this game. First off, I like their wide receivers and tight ends better than Seattle’s. Second, I like the SF offensive line better to open up some small holes for Frank Gore. Pro Football Focus has San Francisco’s overall run blocking grade as a 27.8 for the season. Seattle’s team run blocking grade for 2013 was -45.3. That’s right, negative. So if I had to put money on one team getting a few more yards on the ground, I’ll take the 49ers. Finally, I just think Colin Kaepernick is playing better right now than Russell Wilson. While Kaep was throwing for 198 yards and a TD (plus one rushing) on the road against an elite Carolina defense, Wilson only had 103 yards with no TDs at home against the Saints. Although I would actually rather see Seattle go to the Super Bowl, I think for my official pick I’m going to take the 49ers to pull off the road win.

49ers 17
Seattle 16

Now on to the Armchair Quarterback odds and ends of the week…….

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