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NFL: Predicting the winners of QB competitions

By Lyle Graversen

Jul 28, 2014; Berea, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer (6) and Johnny Manziel (2) throw passes during training camp at Cleveland Browns training facility. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 28, 2014; Berea, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer (6) and Johnny Manziel (2) throw passes during training camp at Cleveland Browns training facility. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 17, 2014; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterbacks Matt Schaub (8) and Derek Carr (4) throw passes at minicamp at Raiders Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 17, 2014; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterbacks Matt Schaub (8) and Derek Carr (4) throw passes at minicamp at Raiders Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Matt Schaub vs. Derek Carr

Of all the veteran QBs that are fending off young draft picks for the starting spot, Matt Schaub is probably the one with the highest expectations for keeping the top spot on the depth chart. Schaub is just a couple of years removed from being a very solid NFL starter and Derek Carr was seen as more of a developmental prospect coming out of college than an elite talent that could walk in and carry a team from day one.

In their first preseason action the Oakland duo put up the following numbers:

Schaub: 3-7, 21 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Carr: 10-16, 74 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

When you first see that Carr had a higher completion percentage and three times the yards as Schaub it might be tempting to declare Carr the week one winner. However, when you actually figure the yards per attempt of the two QBs they are both far too low and Carr had the interception. Pro Football Focus graded Schaub out at a +1.2 overall for the game and Carr at a -1.2. So while Schaub wasn’t great, I don’t believe he hurt his chance to start (yet).

I believe that likely the only thing that would prevent Schaub from being the week one starting QB would be a turnover crazy meltdown like Schaub had in his final season in Houston. If Schaub can protect the football and just manage the offense the job is his for the time being. However, I’m not sure the Raiders will be good enough this season for them to feel the need to keep running Schaub out there all season long. Once they feel they are out of contention look for Carr to take over to earn some game experience.

Week one starter: Matt Schaub
Starter at the end of the season: Derek Carr

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