NFL: Predicting the AFC’s division winners

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: 12-4

No, this isn’t the year the Patriots’ run of excellence (even if they haven’t won a Super Bowl in a decade) comes to a screeching halt. Tom Brady is fresh off leading New England to the AFC Championship, something he did without any real offensive weapons. This year, he’ll have the luxury of throwing to the league’s best tight end not named Jimmy Graham (Rob Gronkowski) and a second more-than-serviceable tight end, Tim Wright.

The defense, which ranked 26th a season ago, gets back Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, two players who suffered season-ending injuries early last season, and adds two potential-shutdown corners: Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

2. New York Jets: 8-8

Rex Ryan’s defense will keep the Jets in games this year, as it seemingly does every season, but Geno Smith is limited. The Jets only chance at playoffs is benching Smith for the newly-acquired Michael Vick.

3. Miami Dolphins: 8-8

For Ryan Tannehill, 2014 serves as a make-or-break season. The former Aggie displayed flashes of greatness at times in each of his first two seasons, but has been mostly inconsistent. He has 36 touchdown passes to 30 interceptions, and had respective QBRs of 50.4 and 45.8 in 2012 and 2013.

If he isn’t much better in 2014 — and I don’t believe he will be — the Dolphins will have another eight win season and even more reason to consider drafting a new signal-caller.

4. Buffalo Bills: 5-11

There might not be a better bet than betting Buffalo to miss the playoffs. The Bills proved their confidence (or lack thereof) in E.J. Manuel by signing Kyle Orton in free agency and lost two defensive cogs (Jairus Byrd and Kiko Alonso) that helped make Buffalo a top-five defense in 2013. Save for Manuel making the jump in 2014 and the defense figuring out how to overcome the losses of Byrd and Alonso, the Bills will suffer another double-digit loss season.