Fansided

NFL Predictions: Picking Week 2 against the spread

By Michael Burke

Sep 7, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) looks to pass the ball during the second half against the against the Indianapolis Colts at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 7, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) looks to pass the ball during the second half against the against the Indianapolis Colts at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 8
Next
Sep 15, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills center Eric Wood (70) snaps the ball to quarterback EJ Manuel (3) during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo beats Carolina 27 to 26. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 15, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills center Eric Wood (70) snaps the ball to quarterback EJ Manuel (3) during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo beats Carolina 27 to 26. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports /

Game: Miami Dolphins (-1) at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Miami (-1)

Truthfully, I don’t think either of these teams are as good as they looked in Week 1. But I do put a little more stock in the Dolphins’ win than I do the Bills’ win.

Buffalo, even in a win at Chicago against a Bears team I picked to make the playoffs, didn’t look THAT good. The defense forced two Jay Cutler interceptions, but Jay Cutler always throws interceptions. Aside from winning the turnover battle (3-1), the Bills were pretty thoroughly outplayed. They possessed the ball less than the Bears did, gained fewer yards, picked up 14 fewer first downs, and committed more than twice as many penalties.

Miami, meanwhile, beat a team that hadn’t lost a season-opener since 2003. The Dolphins were better than the Patriots in all the aforementioned categories (first downs, total yardage, time of possession, and penalties). They held Tom Brady’s offense scoreless in the second half, when they outscored the Patriots 23-0. Sure, I believe, at least to some degree, that it was a fluke. But it has to mean something that they were so dominant against the NFL’s winningest team of the past decade, right?

I’m breaking my golden rule of betting against a home underdog, but a 1-point line is essentially a pick’em, and I just can’t envision the Doug Marrone-EJ Manuel tandem starting the season with two straight wins.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-6)

Pick: Jacksonville (+6)

The Redskins aren’t a good football team. They just aren’t. Dating back to Week 10 of last season, they’ve lost nine consecutive games. Robert Griffin III hasn’t looked good since the playoff game against the Seahawks almost two years ago.

So why are they favored by six points over the Jaguars? I have no idea.

Is it not plausible to suggest that maybe — just maybe — the Jags are better? Didn’t the Jaguars win one more game than the Redskins did last season? Didn’t the Jaguars go 4-4 to end last season? Didn’t the Redskins finish the season 0-8? Didn’t the Jaguars beat the Eagles 17-0 in the first half last week? Didn’t the Redskins get beat down by the team that had the NFL’s worst record a season ago?

Yeah, all of that happened. This one’s a no-brainer: take the points.

Home/NFL