NFL Week 16 Odds: Best Bets Against the Spread

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Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) tries to break a tackle by New Orleans Saints free safety Rafael Bush (25) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 37-34 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) over New Orleans Saints

I don’t understand this line at all.

New Orleans and Atlanta have been virtually identical teams for a large part of the season, and even with the Saints sitting at 6-9 against just 5-8 for the Falcons, it would be tough state definitively that Sean Payton’s team is significantly better. On top of that, New Orleans is just 2-5 against the spread at home this season (including four outright losses), and this could be a “kitchen sink” game for a Falcons team that needs a win to stay alive in the NFC South race.

Should the Saints be favored? Absolutely. This strikes me as a game that should probably be a 3.5 to 4-point spread in favor of New Orleans, but the extra field goal equivalent makes no sense to me, and I’ll be fading the public sentiment in taking a desperate Atlanta team on the road, even without assurance that both Roddy White and Julio Jones will be active.

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