NFL Week 16 Odds: Best Bets Against the Spread

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) tries to break a tackle by New Orleans Saints free safety Rafael Bush (25) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 37-34 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) tries to break a tackle by New Orleans Saints free safety Rafael Bush (25) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 37-34 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) rolls out during the third quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Bengals beat the Browns 30-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) rolls out during the third quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Bengals beat the Browns 30-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports /

Cleveland Browns (+4) over Carolina Panthers

I went with Johnny Manziel and the Browns last week… and things didn’t go well. However, I firmly believe that this line is a pure overreaction to last week’s results.

This line likely would have been nearly a pick’em (if not with Cleveland on the favorite side) prior to last week, but with Manziel coming off a full week of starter’s reps and Carolina being a team that firmly lands in the “do not trust” column, I’ll take the free points. Nearly 75% of the action has come in on the side of the Panthers, further illustrating the overreaction by the public, but the Browns have proven themselves as the better team from top to bottom this season, and that overrides recency bias.

Riding with Johnny Manziel after what we saw last week won’t be easy, and there is no harm if you run the other way, but the rest of Cleveland’s roster is more than a field goal better than Carolina. Take the Browns.

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